Analysis On The Economic Effects In Establishing Sino-Swiss Free Trade Area

Economic globalization is one of the significant features of the development of modern economy. As the international economic ties becoming close,all the countries are trying to take this opportunity and take part in various regional economic organizations. As the important driving force for the economic integration and globalization,especially under the background of the long-blocked WTO multilateral negotiations,the establishment of Free Trade Area has becoming the primary strategic decision for the countries to participate in globalization. The increasing regional agreements are changing the global economic pattern profoundly.As the largest developing country and the fourth-largest economy in the world, China has the sophisticated conditions to establish free trade areas. Switzerland is one of the most-developed countries in the world and always pursuing the policy of opening up. The two countries maintain good economic relations since the establishment of diplomatic relations. Along with the increasingly strengthened trade and economic relationships, the two sides are more likely to have deeper cooperations. At the critical moment when the global financial crisis appeared and the relationship between China and Europe turned around,Premier Wen jiabao visited Switzerland and Europe in January,2009,and the two governments announced a joint study on FTA feasibility. With the effort of Chinese Ministry of Commerce and Swiss Ministry of Economic Affairs,the joint feasibility study has been launched in November.The establishment of FTA for China and Switzerland will not only promote economic trade between the two countries,and also bring great and profound effects on the economic cooperation for China and the whole Europe.Also,as the FTA between developing and developed countries,it will provide a useful reference and valuable experience for China to sign bilateral free trade agreement with more developed countries,and ensure that China can take active part in the economic globalization and benefit from it.In this context,this thesis studies the economic effect on the FTA between China and Switzerland. As well as the theory of international trade,international economics and econometrics,by means of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis,this thesis investigates the feasibility and economic effects of Sino-Swiss FTA and proposes countermeasures.This thesis has six chapters,as follows:Chapter 1 is the thesis introduction of the background and the meaning of this research. A review of the related studies abroad and home,the research approaches and methods and the innovation and shortage in this thesis are introduced.Chapter 2 is the theoretical basis for the establishment of Sino-Swiss FTA. This chapter mainly discusses the theoretical basis of this thesis,including the classical theory and general theory of FTA in the world.They provide theoretical groundwork for the following research on the economic effects of FTA between two countries.Chapter3 is the feasibility study on the establishment of Sino-Swiss FTA. This chapter analyses the feasibility of the FTA from four perspectives:the economic complementarity,the bilateral trade and economic development situation,the forecast on the economic potential and the challenges to the FTA,and establishes the reality basis for the FTA.Chapter4 is the analysis on the economic effects of Sino-Swiss FTA. This chapter includes two parts:theoretical analysis and simulation analysis. Among them,the theory part consists static effect and dynamic effect,and the trade creation effect after the FTA has been estimated in the simulation part.Chapter5 is the countermeasures for China in the establishment of the FTA.These countermeasures consist of several parts:the principles and steps that should be followed;the measures in the service trade and investment cooperation and the establishment of other FTAs,so that the two countries can achieve the win-win situation.Chapter6 is the conclusions of the whole text.Based on the academic achievement,the thesis has several innovation:First of all,the selected country is cutting-edge,the research changes the view of former researches focusing primarily on the FTA between China and regional organization and plays an an exemplary role for the research on the bilateral FTA in the future. Secondly,this thesis uses empirical methods to study the feasibility of the current economic situation,and forecasts the trade potential through the establishment of trade gravity model of China and its top 50 partners. Finally, the analysis of the economic effects consists of various perspectives:the partial equilibrium, general equilibrium,and especially the establishment of simulation programs to get more accurate results.