The Study For Transmission Effect Of The Credit Channel Of Monetary Policy In China Under The Circumstance Of The International Financial Crisis

The transmission mechanism of monetary policy is one of the important issues in the analysis of monetary policy. The global financial crisis, triggered by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, puts forward new issues for the transmission mechanism theory of monetary policy. The effective transmission of monetary policy is vital for restoring market confidence and promoting economic development in the international financial crisis. The role and the regulatory mechanism of monetary policy have significant differences for different political and economic model, and the majority of domestic scholars believe that credit channel dominates in the monetary policy transmission in China. Therefore, this paper, the one hand, enriches the theory of the credit channel of monetary policy, on the other hand, and helps to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy.This paper makes theoretical and empirical analysis of transmission effect of the credit channel of monetary policy in China under the circumstance of the international financial crisis. First, the paper reviews existing literatures on the credit channel of monetary policy, pointes out their inadequacies, and makes its direction and focus clear. Secondly, it shows the applicability of the monetary policy credit channel in China and china's credit transmission mechanism. Furthermore, it makes a qualitative analysis of the basic characteristics of the microbodies in the bakeground of the international financial crisis. From the perspective of the monetary policy'effects on bank lending and loans on the ultimate goal of monetary policy, it conducts an empirical analysis, and compares differences of the effects between before and after of the financial crisis, using cointegration test, Granger causality test, state-space model and impulse response functions. Finally, it gives proposals to improve the efficiency of credit transmission of China's monetary policy. The paper finally reaches the following conclusions:(1) deposit is an important source of loans, and the response of loan interest rate toloans is stronger than deposit rate. Therefore, the central bank is able to affect commercial banks by adjusting to loans deposit and lending interest rates. (2) Since 1998, the impact curve on commercial bank loans presents the trend of rising-decreasing-rising. This shows that the intensity of the impact on loans is weakening. However, under the circumstance of the international financial crisis, the impact has been enhanced. (3) The impulse response of actual investment to loans is obvious, the first five months are positive, and impulse response delay of the actual investment to the actual industrial added value is short. The response of the actual social consumption goods to the loan is significantly higher than the two phases before the international financial crisis, but lower than the actual investment. Loans increased will bring price to rise slightly in the next six month.In short, based on the empirical analysis, the response of the actual investment and consumption to the loans performes well, but there are still some problems. To improve China's monetary policy in the international financial crisis, the paper puts forward to some specific recommendations. To improve the effectiveness of monetary policy drawn up by the central bank and effectively guide the market expectations are nessessary; To speed up internal reforms of commercial banks in order to establish a modern financial enterprise system; to promote enterprise reform, and optimize the consumption and investment environment will be the important task of improving credit channel of transmission china'monetary policy in the future.