The Tobin's Q Effect In China And Its Explanation

Tobin's Q theory is considered as an improvement and innovation of Neo-classical investment theory. It reveals the theory relationship between capital market and industrial investment,thus connects hypothesized and entity economy.Base on the study on Tobin's Q effect of Chinese economy,we can not only get fully understand of both hypothesized and entity economy in China,but also find out their characteristics and problems while they are running.Further more, research on Tobin's Q effect of our country is the basis for formulating and carrying out economic policies. Also it's a good way to make sure whether corporate investment decision-making is reasonable.Drawing on the basis of previous research, this paper uses Unit Root Test and Johansen Co-integration Test to examine Tobin's Q effects in our economy.The data used is from March 1993 to May 2010.And the result turns out to be failure.In order to find out the reasons that caused the failure of Tobin's Q effect, the paper analyzes the reasons that cause the government-led "crowding out" in details.Then the author find that the variation of finance preference of listed state-owned companies is one of the reasons.After the introduction of Chinese "high investment, high exports and low consumption"economic growth mode, the article makes a comprehensive analysis of the lack of industrial investment opportunities in China,and gets the conclution that the lack of industrial investment opportunities is also a reason that leds to Tobin's Q effect failure.Finally,the author makes a overall study of the inflated shares prices of listed companies in China,and finds out that the inflated shares prices are alse an explanation of the failure of Tobin's Q effect in China.