The Evalution For The Level Of Agricultural Mechanization And Predication Of The Level Of Mechnical Farming, Sowing And Harvest Of Shaanxi Province

Promotion of agricutural mechanization is an improtant way for our country to achieve modern agriculture. In order to make agricutural mechanization to play a greater role on the agricultural modernization of Shaanxi Province, it is crucial to have an accurately understanding and accuratly evaluate the development of agricultural mechanization.In order to practical and theoretical to promote agricutural mechanization development in Shaanxi Province, it is necessary to access agricutural mechanization level objectively, to understand the regional imbalance in the development of agricutural mechanization correctly, and to have a scientific prediction of the comprehensive level of mechnical farming, sowing, and harvest. They are also the scientific basis for the government to make related policies, guidelines, planning. evalution of the level of agricutural mechanization and predication of the comprehensive level of mechnical farming, sowing and harvest of Shaanxi Province is based on the aspects those mentioned above.This paper contains two parts, the first part evaluates the level of agricutural mechanization of Shaanxi Province by using the grey theory and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The paper selects the index system of agricutural mechanization established by ministry of agriculture in 2007.It shows that the level of agricutural mechanization has increased during 2005 to 2007 by calculating the level of agricutural mechanization of Shaanxi Province. In some areas agricutural mechanization fluctuated, and the development has regional imbalance. The paper choose the three-year sequence of the level of agricutural mechanization as the mother sequence, and choose 10 secondary indicators as the sub-sequence, it analyzes and studies the influentical factors of the level of agricutural mechanization of Shaanxi. Results indicated the original value of profits rate of farm machinery(c3) is the optimal factor. And the degree of mechanical sowing(A2), the degree of mechanized farming(A1) and the proportion of farming, forestry and animal husbandry and fishery labor force in rural labor force are the secondary factors. Lastly, the agricultural productivity per rural labor, the proportion of specially trained personnel for operation the farm machinery(B3) and the original value of farm machinery per rural labor force(B1) is inferior compared to others. This paper using the expert investigation method to determine the weights, and it using the linear membership function and M( ?,+ )fuzzy operator to setup the fuzzy evaluation model of development stages to judge the stage of agricutural mechanization, and use weighted agverage method to process the results. The results show that the development of agricutural mechanization of Shaanxi Province is at the alternate period stage from the initial stage to intermediate stage. Some meatures and recommendations to promotion the development of agricutural mechanization are generated in this paper.The second part select the LM Algorithm(an improved BP Algorithm), genetic neural network and RBF network to construct forecast models to predict the mechanized farming level, mechanical sowing level, and mechanical harvest level. Those models have been used to forecast mechanized farming level, mechanical sowing level, and the mechanical harvest level. Test samples were used in these models to examine forecast precision, finally, comapres and analyze the three predicting models. Although the results reveal that the forecast precision of those models are different, those mean prediction errors are all within 10%,and all can be uesd to forecast the comprehensive level of mechnical farming, sowing and harvest.