The Housing Price Of Dalian: Analysis Of Affecting Factors And Forecast

The nation's real estate market has been effectively activated since the welfare housing allocation has stopped in 1998, which plays an important role in the economic growth. In September 2003, the State Council issued "Document 18", which publicly confirmed that the real estate is the core industry of national economic for the first time. As a pillar industry in national economic development, the healthy development of real estate relate to people's livelihood. When talking about the healthy development of the real estate, the price is undoubtedly the most important criteria. However, China's housing prices rise since 2003, which causes concerns of the community.Dalian is China's most dynamic city in the north. The economy of Dalian has maintained rapid growth and the ecological environment is significently improved. In 2001, Dalian awarded the honor of "Top 500 of Global Environment" from the United Nations.In addation to unique natural and human environment, Dalian is the most popular city for the real estate investors. In recent years, the housing prices of Dalian soar with the country's housing prices. Because the housing price is the heart of the real estate market, so analysising factors of the housing price and forecasting trends of the housing price can provide some reference for developers' investment, government regulation and people consumption. Meanwhile, Dalian is the leader city in northeast region. Studying the housing prices of Dalian has some reference value to the similar areas such as Qingdao.In this paper, we use the method of theory and empirical analysis to briefly analyze the factors of Dalian housing price and forcast the trends. The paper consists of six chapters:the first chapter is an introduction; the second chapter is an overview of the housing price; the third and the forth chapter are qualitative and quantitative analysis about the influencing factors of the house prices and status of Dalian house prices; the fifth chapter predicts Dalian housing price; the sixth chapter is a brief summary of research results and provides corresponding recommendations for the healthy development of the real estate market of Dalian.Specifically, this paper first introduces the research background and topics significance, and reviews relevant research at home and abroad, the author selects the method for quantitative research the effect factors of the housing prices and forecast house prices basic on previous research results and Comprehensive Comparison. Then the author overview the housing price, describe its status. and make qualitative and quantitative analysis of its affecting factors.In quantitative research,the author uses multiple regression to analyze eight variables from the perspectives of supply and demand. The results obtained are:the Dalian housing price depends on urban residents per capita disposable income level from the demand perspective; housing investments and housing area completed have a significant effect on the housing prices from the supply perspective. Finally, we select significant affecting factors of the housing prices by multiple regression as the the relevant factors series.Then we use GM(1,N) to forcast the housing prices from 2009 to 2011, GM model tested well and predict 2009 to 2011 is 7095,8280 and 9578 yuan per square meter.In addition, according to Dalian real estate development trend. In the end,the article provide some refrences:raising household income, increaseing effective demand, government regulation, controling the real estate investment, stabling the housing prices, in order to the healthy development of real estate in Dalian.