Research On The Influencing Factors And Forecast Of Commercial Housing Prices In Wuxi City

The research object of this paper are different influence factors of commodity housing price.This paper is aimed to find out the key factors affecting the housing price and testify their correlation with the housing price through qualitative and quantitative analysis,based on the research of primary commodity housing market in Wuxi.The motivation of this research is that real estate industry has become the pillar industry in China during the past 40 years.However,the development of real estate industry comes with both positive and negative influence.The improvement of housing condition,acceleration of urbanization and the economic would be regarded as the positive effects while the housing price,cost of labor and land have increased stormily.The reason why selecting the primary commodity housing market of Wuxi is that Wuxi is involved in the policy of "One city,One strategy" and regarded as the representative third-tier city in the developed eastern region.There is preferable practicability and extended significance to study on the influence factors of commodity housing price in Wuxi.This paper applies both qualitative and quantitative methodology.Firstly,object of this study is strictly defined.Then based on document analysis method,factors that have effects on housing prices and the forecast method are reviewed and referenced.The paper employs value-cost decision theory and supply-demand decision theory.Factors that influence commodity housing,which is mainly in Wuxi market,is studied.Main factors can be subdivided into cost factors,demand factors,supply factors,policy factors and expectation factors.On the basis of qualitative study,this paper includes a SPSS regression analysis on selected elements which have potential effect on housing prices.This paper chooses unit price of commodity housing land,construction price index,commercial residential transaction area,growth rate of regular residence population,disposable income of urban residents,loan interest rates and available period of stock.The results show that commercial residential transaction areas and available period of stock have no correlation with prices.For the remaining factors,loan interest rates have negative correlation with housing prices while another four factors have positive correlation with housing prices.The order of the factors extracted from the correlation dimension is following:1.unit price of commodity housing land,2.disposable income of urban residents,3.construction price index,4.growth rate of regular residence population,5.loan interest rates.Then this paper analyzes the influence strength of each factor subsequently.Based on the regression result,sequence of impact strength is as follow:1.growth rate of regular residence population,2.disposable income of urban residents,3.construction price index,4.unit price of commodity housing land 5.loan interest rates.Finally,this paper analyzes the influencing factors based on the multiple linear regression results of various factors under the model,and forecasts the commodity housing price on Wuxi's commodity housing quarterly prices in 2019.