An Analysis Of Terms Of Trade Of China

Terms of Trade which is an index of the price of a country's exports in terms of its imports is an important indication for computing benefits which a nation could receive from international trade. Since the form and opening-up, our foreign trade has made an overwhelming breakthrough, which has greatly promoted the national economic growth, the upgrading of the industrial structure and the quality and efficiency of economic growth as well. However, after joining the WTO in 2001, China has faced increasingly fierce international competition. Especially in 2008, the triple pressures of the deterioration in the external environment, domestic structural adjustment policies and the economic cycles itself have made the trend of terms of trade more worthy of attention. To avoiding immiserizing growth, this thesis, mainly focusing on the terms of trade of the dominating industrial manufactured products, probes into the change of terms of trade since 2000, so as to reveal the status of China's international trade benefit.Based on the aforementioned analysis, this thesis can be divided into the following parts:First, this thesis reviews the relative references home and abroad to know about the research results on this subject, which becomes the basis of the following analysis. It also sums up and observes the relationship between the various terms of trade. Second, this paper calculates the relative price index of our country's terms of trade of industrial manufactured products from 2000 to 2008 using Passche price index and carries out the international comparison. With analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of China's foreign trade development and some data information, this thesis gets the results that China's net barter terms of trade has a declining trend while its income terms and factorial terms of trade have been improved. Third, this thesis performs theoretical analysis of the main influencing factors to the terms of trade and analyzes empirically the causes of the change in the net barter terms of trade of China by means of regression analysis, which can be quantified. The next is performing co-integration test and causality test with the relative data, which show the correlativity and the causality between the terms of trade and the influencing factors. On the basis of the above conclusions, we can find some clues in terms of industrial policy, foreign trade policy and exchange rate policy to improve terms of trade of China.