Empirical Analysis On The Change Of China's Terms Of Trade

NBTT has been thought as an important indicator to measure the development of trade and the gains from trade. We can get the condition of the international trade deeply and widely by terms of trade. It shows the terms of trade are not only the change rate of export and import, but also the whole conception of NBTT, ITT and FTT, so it is necessary to put them together to consider in order to comprehensively measuring the gains from trade. After the policy of reform and opening up, especially these years China's international trade is developing rapidly, the total trade was in the third place, the structure of trade changed greatly, and the market diversification is formed basically. However, it didn't show China had been a strong trading nation. Terms of trade in china are always the important point for researching, especially as the faster development of economy these years. Terms of trade have become one of the instrumentals to analyze the international trade condition as an important indicator.A lot of scholars had successfully studied terms of trade which can be used in researching into China, but many of them had just analyzed the NBTT. It is rarely to contain the three elements and research into the fundamental reason. The paper pointed out the changeable trend of China's terms of trade and the problems in developing by analyzing data and combining current situations. Then some relative advices were put forward.First, the paper using Excel got the changeable statistical of NBTT, ITT and FTT in the development of China's international trade in 1994-2005 based on the main export and import commodities'prices and quantities of the China Statistical Yearbook.Second, these terms of trade were analyzed by the statistical above and some cases, and then we got the conclusion that the trend of gross NBTT declined in the fluctuation which result from the import price raising and export price declining. It also showed the upward trend in the gross ITT and FTT were apparent, but exporters mainly exported products with lower technology and added value which was less competitive because of the extensive mode of economic growth.It was the extensive mode of economic growth that made the export commodities'quantity increased quickly while the quality was ignored. In order to get more profits, some exporters even exported more commodities at the cost of lower price. However, we had to face that the quality was the most important factor and the market's competition was increasing, so some bad effects had been turned on as exporting more Labor-intensive commodities with lower added value and profit rate. The extensive mode of economic growth became a bottleneck of the development economics and trade, so to solve the problem fundamentally and improve NBTT, we must change the mode of growth.At last, based on the analysis above, the development trend of international trade was optimistic and proposed to pay more attention of the growth mode and develop the quality and benefit of the commodities. Also, it brought up some relative politic advices. Only the economic system changing and structure upgrading was accelerated, the policy function was turned around, can we improve NBTT, extend trade benefits and enhance the trade's quality and benefit.