The Environmental Investment Of A Construction Project In Its Life Circle Based On Chaos Prediction

Nowadays, there are several problems in environmental investment of construction projects in China, such as unified definition, nonstandard management, inaccurate forecasting and etc. Accurate prediction is one of effective way, which can improve the efficiency of the utility of environmental investment and dramatically decrease the pollution of construction projects in its cycle life. Home and abroad scholars have used non-linear method to predict project investment, based on which, chaos theory is employed in this dissertation to predict environmental investment of construction project in its cycle life and reference is offered to improve its prediction level in China.Chaos time series analysis technique is employed in this dissertation to do comprehensive investigation of environmental investment of highway in China. The data of environmental investment of some highway between 1997 and 2006 is analyzed in particular. First of all, data structure is analyzed by qualitative analysis, such as frequency, power spectral analysis, principal content analysis (PCA). By the frequency distribution statistics, the differences have been found between environmental investment data and normally distributed random data. Nonlinear character of the time series is determined by the power spectral analysis, and the chaos character of the time series is easily illustrated by the PCA. Moreover, significantly chaotic dynamics can be further confirmed in term of calculating the nonlinear property value of the time series. G-P algorithm is employed to determine correlation dimensions, and small date set method is employed to determine maximum Lyapunov exponents. The maximum Lyapunov exponent of the time series is positive number, which means that the environmental investment time series is in chaotic state and chaotic time series can be used to predict environmental investment of construction projects at feasibility phase.After verification, the relative uncertainty between the predicted value and the actual value is approximately 10%, which in accordance with prediction uncertainty limits of construction projects at feasibility phase, so the prediction is valid. Therefore, the chaos time series analysis can be employed as a new method to predict environmental investment of construction projects. The method makes the prediction of environmental investment of construction projects not only merely base on liner model but also enhance scientific nature and the accuracy of the prediction.