| Foreign exchange reserve is the main reserve asset held by the monetary authorities. Our foreign exchange reserve sees a dramatic increase since 1994. It now has reached to 2.847 trillion dollars. How to effectively manage such a large scale of wealth turns into a hush dilemma. Multi-level management is a popular management style. Current domestic studies on Multi-level management are limited to the level of demand, while neglect the specificity of supply of our foreign reserve.The most creative point is that this paper recommends specific strategies for multi-level management from the angle of supply-demand matching, With reference to the previous theoretical efforts both home and aboard, and also the practical experiences of Norway and Singapore, this paper uses several empirical practices such as ratio analysis and smoothing processing to discuss the features of demand motives and the stability of supply, and creatively proposes specific dividing foundations based on supply demand matching. Finally, this paper gives relative recommendations on management bodies and operation strategies for multi-level management of foreign exchange reserve.The results came as follows:(1) There exists potential demand on our foreign exchange reserve, including international investment demand aroused by wealth effect and currency substitution demand aroused by interest rate effect. With reference to the average ratio of M2/R in East Asian countries and regions before Asian crisis, it's estimated that the potential demand has reached 2 trillion in the end of 2009; (2) The foreign exchange reserve accumulated through the way of trading and FDI is stable, while The foreign exchange reserve accumulated through the channels of investment income, external debt and security investment bears a relatively high risk of reversal. The stable part accounts for 58.7% of the whole reserve after removing the hot money mixing in trade surplus and FDI; (3) Applying to the principal of matching supply with demand, it is calculated that 786 billion dollars can be used to satisfy the adjusted basic demands and 369.92 billion dollars and 924.44 billion dollars for developing demand and earning demand. |
