Monetary Policy Asymmetry Analysis Of Industry Effect In China

Monetary policy is the organic component of national macroeconomic policy system, it plays a vital role in the economy. As one of the most important tools which adjust the economic operation, monetary policy has been extensive concerned by the theory and practice because of highly unity and relative independence, so long as mentioning the function of monetary policy, people tend to habitually put monetary policy as a total amount control concepts. For a long time, our country conducted monetary policy implement in unified monetary policy, such as unified adjust total deposit interest rate, loan interest rate and the deposit reserve rate, etc. However, the way of "one size fits all" and the current monetary policy transmission efficiency is unable to fully meet the China's macroeconomic adjustment needs. We began to find the same economic sectors in the face of different types of monetary policy or under the same kind of monetary policy operating, different economic sectors reaction result isn't exactly the same, monetary policy can produce different effect mechanism is called monetary policy asymmetric effect.Under the impact of the same currency policy, different industries reaction result is different, the asymmetric effects of monetary policy will weaken monetary policy implementation effect, we must implement the difference in different industries, otherwise a unified monetary policy may control certain industries blind investment, at the same time it will limit the normal rational investment in other industries. In 2003 monetary policy implementation report has already pointed out that, with financial regulation means promoting China's industrial structure adjustment; After the central bank consciously took some measures, such as strengthening commercial bank hints of risk and a "window guidance", control cars, real estate credit amount, etc. In recent years the domestic scholars also began to study from the view of industry, but it is in the initial stage, the study is not too much, it also makes the monetary policy formulation and implementation based on subjective judgment or mainly qualitative analysis, lack of necessary data support and empirical basis. So study China's monetary policy industry asymmetric effects can guide central Banks to play monetary policy tools variables'mediating role effectively and promote industry rapid and stable development.The paper based on the industry as an example, analyze the asymmetry effect of monetary policy on industry. According to relevant economics principle, theoretically proved monetary policy asymmetry effect; then empirically study the existence of monetary policy industry asymmetric effect in China, the manifestation of this asymmetry, the causes of monetary policy industry asymmetry. This paper analysis path as follows:First of all, to study monetary policy industry asymmetric effect analysis, using of China's 2003-2009 industry's annual indexes, discussing whether the monetary policy generate discrepancies of the industries, and the result shows that there exist obvious monetary policy asymmetry in our country. Second, from monetary policy transmission mechanism to study monetary policy industry effect and the specific performance, based on 2003-2009 monthly data, using VAR model and impulse response function for empirical analysis.Third, in order to analysis the reason, chose elements concentration, export dependence, industry product attributes, market competition degrees, asset-liability ratio, interest burden, assets structure and industrial scale the correlation factors to multiple regression analysis, finally discovers the main reason in China. Above 3 points around China's monetary policy asymmetric study, step by step, linked together, draw some important conclusions:First, in our country, the same monetary policy has obvious industry asymmetric effects.Second, different intermediate target is different, at present money supply shows better applicability more than interest rates in our country.Three, industry product attributes, assets structure and industrial scale is the main cause of causing monetary policy industry asymmetry.Compared with other articles, this article mainly has the following features:One is to adopt a new industry classification standards, classification is more reasonable and meticulous. Before, people who research monetary policy asymmetric effects exist industry classification caliber division relatively broad or division standard unreasonable situation. this paper classification standards in accordance with the national bureau of statistics latest national economic industries formulated classification standards "(2003), with international practice principle of economic activity homogeneity to differentiate industry, can best embody our country's industry development. And select three kinds of industrial sector and 36 subprime industry as the research object, guaranteeing the rationality of classification, and at the same time fully using the industry complete index data, making empirical analysis more security.The paper is not only a quantitative inspection in monetary policy industry existence, and quantitative tests the reasons. Through theory analysis, we found concentration, export dependence include element industry, the market competition degrees, industry product attributes, asset-liability ratio, interest burden, assets structure and industrial scale factors, eventually finding out the main reason of our monetary policy industry effect, making article structure more complete.Three is various analysis method combine with the application. Based on the related macroeconomic theory hypothesis conditions, use VAR model, impulse response function and panel data model to analysis monetary policy industry asymmetric effects. VAR model is used most commonly in studying monetary policy effect, impulse response function can reflection monetary policy effect. While the panel data model can compensate for the lack of sample size, making parameter estimation results more persuasive. The paper based on the advantage of the two models, this is one of the paper's characteristics, too.This paper also has many defects and the insufficiency. Due to data accessibility, the article just select industrial industry to investigate effect of the monetary policy industry asymmetry. In the annual selection, because our classification standards of new industry official in 2003, therefore only selected the 2003-2009 data, data length is still insufficient; for eliminating price factors, each economic variables reduction index use the consumer prices index, the empirical results may be not accurate enough. With the national industry data substantial, I will further improve, in order to draw more accurate conclusions. And the three monetary policy asymmetry closely related, study together can explain the asymmetric system completely, revealing the asymmetric performance rule. Therefore, combining three forms is also a follow-up study direction.