Currency Supply Quantity, Structure And Economical Fluctuation

The economy fluctuation theory, the currency and the economical relations theory has studied the economical undulation root, the economy quite systematically to the currency supply function, as well as the currency supply to the economy the influence, accumulated the massive theories and the real diagnosis research literature, and has obtained the major point:The economical and the currency supply existence function and the reaction interaction relations, display for the currency supply short-term to the economy influential and the long-term neutrality. But, the system research currency supply and the economical undulation relational literature are few, the currency supply has the total quantity and the structure two big weight target, had the research often to concentrate in the discussion currency supply total quantity and the economical relations, but neglects the currency structure to the economical undulation influence. The our country current currency supply total quantity fast increase, the currency supply structure in the continual readjustment, the bloating pressure is also big, the economy realizes the steady fast growth with difficulty. This article to the currency supply total quantity, the structure and the economical undulation relations carries on the thorough discussion, and puts forward the policy proposal in this foundation. The article main research conclusion is as follows:1. Currency supplies has the remarkable influence to the economical undulation. The real diagnosis result indicated that, our country currency supply change has the remarkable influence to the economical undulation. Regardless of is the narrow sense level currency generalized level currency to our country GDP, the investment, the expense, the price, the import and the exportation undulation has the influence. Specifically, in the 3rd chapter, is remarkable through the statistical analysis discovery currency supply and the economical undulation influence, the currency supply has the lag phase to the economical undulation function, is approximately 4-8 months. Through the VAR model pulse response analysis discovery, each macroscopic economical variable (investment, expense, price, import, exportation and GDP) to M1, M2 are sensitive, also has the time lag effect as a whole. Had proven the currency supply and the economical undulation has the relation truly, and the currency namely possibly has the smooth economical movement function (mainly is camera monetary policy), simultaneously, currency supply possibly itself is creates the economical undulation the reason, when situations and so on currency supply rule do not appear. In the 4th chapter, we have established the more scientific measurement model, again proves the currency supply to the undulation existence remarkable influence.2. Economical undulations can cause the change which the currency supplies. The research discovered that, the currency supply and the economical undulation relations are not unidirectional, but is bidirectional, the economical undulation also has the tremendous influence to the currency supply, also is the economical non-steady movement, causes the currency supply inevitably the corresponding change. The 4th chapter Grainger cause and effect examination discovery, the currency supply total quantity and the structure and the economical undulation are mutually reasons, also is the economical undulation is causes the currency supply the reason which (including total quantity and structure) changes.3rd chapter the pulse response discovery, leaves, the investment, the expense, the price, the import and under the exportation impact in the total output, Ml and M2 have the varying degree response. Among them, Ml to GDP, the investment, the import and the exportation impact response is big, but to expends is insensitive with the price impact, has not responded nearly, indicated the narrow sense currency supply is left the total output the import, the import influence.M2 to GDP, the import, the expense impact is sensitive, but to invests basically has not responded with the price impact, has certain response to the exportation.3. Different level currencies and the economical undulation relations are different. The real diagnosis examination result indicated, although M1, M2 all have the remarkable influence to the economical undulation, but the different level money supply the impact influence has a more obvious difference to the economy. First is the function direction is inconsistent, narrow sense currency M1 to the GDP impact function is negative, also is M1 has the suppression economy undulation function, but generalized currency M2 to the GDP impact function is negative, also is M2 is the total output leaves the undulation the impact source. Next, the narrow sense currency and the generalized currency the impact dynamics which leaves to the total output are inconsistent. Under the M1 impact, GDP just started not to have the change, but its influence increased gradually, and in the third issue achieved biggest, then weakened gradually, but in under the M2 impact, GDP just did not start the M2 impact influence, but along with the time lapse, its influence increased gradually, and in the 8th issue achieved biggest, afterwards in the long time had the influence. Moreover under the M1 function total output leaves the response value (impact response maximum value) to have to be bigger than under the M2 function the total output to leave the response value, indicated is affected the M1 impact the GDP response to be more sensitive. Meanwhile leaves in the total output under the impact, M1 response that degree is small, but the M2 response degree is big. Finally, when narrow sense currency and generalized currency and investment, expense, price as well as import and exportation mutually for impact source, the response degree is not same. Therefore, we when judgment currency supply and economical undulation relations, first must carry on scientifically the currency the lamination.4. Currency structural change and economical undulation existence close relation. Had about the currency supply and the economical undulation relational research often based on the currency supply total quantity angle of view, but this article from the currency supply change discrimination for the total quantity change and the structural change, carries on the causal relation reduced pressure to the currency supply structural change and the economical undulation to discover, the two existence bidirectional Grainger causal relation, integrates the currency supply structure the measurement analysis model to carry on the fitting further to demonstrate, the currency structural change has the remarkable influence to the economical undulation, the coefficient is 0.16, direction for negative. The pulse response result showed the economy has the positive response to the currency structural change impact, the concrete response has not affected nearly for the opening, then the negative response increases gradually, in the second issue achieved biggest, afterwards weakens, and after 5th issue of not lag response. This has the big enlightenment to our country currency practice, since long ago, our country currency regulation often focuses the attention in the currency supply total quantity, creates the result is changes the money supply to regulate the economical movement the effect to be limited, in which possible reason to have neglected the currency structure change, because the currency authority regulation currency supply regulates the economy, but as a result of M1 straighter receive regulation influence, but the M2 change is slow, will be able to create the currency structure inevitably the change, then possible to counterbalance the total quantity the effect. Therefore, the currency practice must pay attention to the currency structure suitably the change tendency and the speed.5. Demand factors are the economical undulation important reasons. This article when 4th chapter of real diagnosis research currency supply total quantity, structure to economical undulation, has introduced the domestic absorption and the overseas demand takes the control variable. The real diagnosis examination discovery, is same with other findings, the demand factor is our country short-term economy undulation important reason. Through the Grainger cause and effect examination discovery domestic absorption and the overseas demand is specifically our country economy undulation reason, but does not have the reverse causal relation. After carries on the measurement model return to discover that, the domestic absorption regression coefficient is 0.427, also is the domestic absorption undulation rate changes 1 percentage point every time, can cause the economical undulation synchronization to change 0.427 percentage point, has confirmed the domestic absorption is our country economy undulation important reason. The overseas demand regression coefficient is 0.450, indicated the overseas demand changes a percentage point every time, can cause the GDP undulation rate change 0.450 percentage point, had proven along with our country economy unceasing reform and open policy, the overseas demand already was our country economy important pull force, the overseas demand change has the tremendous influence to our country economy movement. The pulse response demonstration, our country domestic and foreign demands can cause the economical undulation obviously, looked from the influence, the economy is easier the overseas demand influence, also confirmed our country's economy to rely on the exportation extremely, exports the guidance country, therefore, in order to in guaranteed well our country economy steady fast growth, had to expand needs, reduces the economy foreign level of dependency.In order to for the economical steady fast growth, economical realization smooth reforming, must provide the good currency supply environment. Must obtain from following 4 aspects:1st, implements the willowy sole regular monetary policy; 2nd, optimized currency supply structure; 3rd, is clear about take the generalized level money supply as the regulation key; Outside 4th, changes must draw for in must actuate the economic type.