| With the continuous development of global economics and finance,the fluctuation of asset's price such as stocks,bonds,foreign exchange and real estate becomes an important part in current macroeconomics,especial after the global fianacial crisis,there are more and more academic and govermnet's attention has been paid to it.In China,the real estate has experienced rapid development for the past decades,and the real estate plays an important role in our macroeconomics.The changes and fluctuations of the real estate prices is the mos t significant charactor,and with the diffierent stages of real estate development,the main factors that influence real estate prices flutuations are different too.In the market economy,monetary policy will affect real estate price flutautions rapidly w hile real estate price flutautions has become an important factor for adjusting macroeconomics,so researching the influence of monetary policy to the real estate price fluctuation is good for suiting markets and catch goals.So main purpose of this paper is combined economics theory and monthly economic data of empirical analys is to inquiry the role of real estate in different currency policy conduction process,in order to give some suggestions to currency policy making.This paper 's first part is an introducation,after that,is a review of the literature from home and abroad,divide them as whether currency policy can influence the real estate prices affectively.From the findings of previous lit erature,although because of the time,differeces of the datas' and variables' selecting,different empirical models,the conclusion is quiet different,these literature research methods and ideas have helped me very much,based on the background of China's actual economic situation,research on the real estate price fluctuation in different kinds of monetary policy indicates the directions.Secondly,based on the theoretical anlysis of the effects of currency policy are discussed in detail the real estate price fluctuation.After introducing the system of China's currency policy,this paper build IS-LM model to analysis the w ay currency policy influence the real estate price from market rates,money supply and credits.We analyze the way rates affect real estate price flucuttion from real estate market's demand and supply,analyze credits' influence of real estate price from customers' house and invested demand and market supply,analyze the way money supply influence real estate price from the wealth effect broght by M2 and currency demand,analyze the economic expectation fluctuation from changes of different currency policies,at last make a conclusion.In the empirical analysis,this paper gahters related economic data from year 2008 to year 2019,using ADF test,Cointegration,VAR model and AR test,impulse response and variance decomposition method to analysis the inf luence of currency policy to real estate price.From the conclusion,different policis have made different affects,interest rates have a longer and small impact on estate prices,while money supply and credit scales have a faster impact on them without long-term influence.Interest rates always put a negative affect to the real estate price;Money supply and credit scale will put posit ive affects toreal estate price at a long term.In a word,quantitative monetary policy can adjust real estate peice fluctuation much better than interest rate policy.At last,this paper summarizes the conclusions of the empirical analysis and put forward some suggestions.One is to speed up the progress of interest rate marketization,and second when loose monetary policy to stimulate the economy,we should consider the real estate price fluctuation into this.Thirdly,money supply and credit is suitable as a monetary policy control tool,because the affects are more previous and focusing to estate. |
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