The Analysis Of Competition Pattern In China Communications Market Under Background Of The Three Networks Convergence

After the reorganization on telecommunications in May 2008, the main three telecom operators possess national network resources, the strength and scale between the operators is getting nearer, so they become market competitors which have full-service operation ability and strong competitiveness.In 2010, the policy of the triple play defined the principle of two-way acess for the broadcasting and TV industry and telecom industry. The eligible enterprises in broadcasting and TV industry may operator all value-added telecommunications and some basic telecommunications services, Internet services, and the telecommunications companies who meet the requirement can be engaged in the production and transmission of some broadcasting and television programs. Because the broadcasting and television operators get into the value-added telecommunications and some basic telecommunications services area, the communications market will have some new changes, especially in the broadband market, telecom operators will face a severe competition.However, the three networks convergence, which is still in the first stage, is impacted by the regulatory policy, business mode and the net infrustructure in the developmental process. So, the three networks convergence in China will be long and uncertain.On the basis of the analysis of the development of the foreign triple play, combines with the internal current triple play situation, the paper analyses the chances and challenges under Network Convergence background for the. broadcasting and TV and telecom operators and forecasts the subscribers of the representativeness business by a method integrating scenarios Analysis with Bass Diffusion Model. On that basis, the paper analyses the communications market competition Pattern under network convergence background by the SCP model. It is expectd that this paper will provide the theoretical foundation for the implementation of the communications industry policy and provide some suggestions for the healthy competitive and orderly development of the communication industry.