| Since the beginning of 1998, the State Council had issued:On Furthering The Urban Housing System Reform To Speed Up Housing Construction Notice (series: [1998]23).China's real estate market began to change fundamentally. The obvious sign was the welfare housing policy had been canceled, which replaced by a real estate into the market. With the constant increase in the real estate market, it has become more significant on the role of economic growth, which has become one of the main industries on China's economic growth. However, the Chinese current real estate prices affecting people's livelihood have sharply risen to a high history record. Some of the metropolitan housing prices have demonstrated bubbles. The data of National Bureau of Statistics show that in 2010 China's total retail sales of social commodities throughout the year was about 15.5 trillion Yuan, while the real estate sales were up to 4.5 trillion Yuan which occupied nearly one-third of that of the total retail sales of social commodities. The loans of bank all through the year of 2010 had added 8 trillion Yuan, and that loans of the real estate industry had reached 2.17 trillion Yuan. Obviously, the proportion of the real estate has overwhelmed one-third of that in China's economy. This long-term rising trend of real estate prices makes the real estate industry much more profitable than other industries. With the capital's character of pursuing profits, a large amount of unused money and parts of industrial capital are flowing into real estate industry which results in the imbalance of economic and social structure. Also, the tendency of real estate prices have great impact on residents savings and consuming behaviors which undoubtly challenge how the monetary policies to adjust structure and promote internal needs. Moreover, when the bubbles burst out, it will not only make our national finance policies instable, but also cause political and social crises.Considering that, Chinese Government attaches great importance to the healthy development of the real estate market. In the context of the price rising to a high record, since 2010,the central government has regulated three times on the real estate market, the newest round is the "national eight items", the determination and execution ability of this round is unprecedented. After the announcement of the policy, trading volume of the real estate market has decreased rapidly, but the price is still firm," new national eight items" is focus on suppressing needs through credit policy, it can only works in a short while. Nowadays, how to improve the effectiveness of the monetary policies on real estate regulation is becoming a most attention-grabbing subject of the government. This essay has collected plenty of the newest data, combined with the monetary policy that has just issued. The whole essay is based on the academic achievements on the subject, take advantage of appropriate quantitative methods, research into the effectiveness of monetary policy on real estate regulation. The framework of this essay is as below:The first chapter: foreword. Starting from the phenomenon of the rapidly growth of real estate prices, then introduce the background and study importance of this essay, review related research achievements in recent years, in addition, introduce main research methods of this essay.The second chapter: analyze the current status of the real estate prices in our nation, then expatiate on formative processes of the real estate foam from supply-demand aspect.The third chapter: discuss related theories on monetary policy and the conduction mechanism of monetary policy on real estate.The fourth chapter: summarize the monetary policy in our nation since 1998. Analyze the regulation effect of monetary policy on real estate prices from different aspects, such as intermediate variables M2, nominal interest rate, bank credit.The fifth chapter: making models, such as, ADF analysis, Grange analysis and Multiple Linear Regression, to analyze the impacts of the two monetary policies intermediate variables(money supply and nominal interest rate on real estate prices, then explore the impacts on real estate prices of the variation of non-self-financing of the real estate developer, finally get research conclusions and suggestions.The sixth chapter:analyze the limitations of the monetary policy in our nation in the perspective of the monetary policy transmission channels and the unique dual economy.The seventh chapter: propose some advice on how to execute efficient monetary policy to regulate the real estate prices. |
PDF Full Text Request