| Before 1998 there was no real sense of the real estate market in China, the housing system was an in-kind welfare housing allocation system. Therefore, there was no real supply and demand, the price mechanism can not play a regulatory role in the real estate market. From 1998, China began to implement the commercialization of housing system. Since then, the ability of the housing needs of the residents have been released; the real estate market began to develop rapidly. In 2003, the real estate industry was included into the pillar industries of our country, at the same time, the monetary policy, tax policy, land policy, were strongly supported of the real estate market development, the real estate market has become China's economy development leader. Over the last decade, China's strong economic strength sustained the development of the real estate market, in turn, the real estate market has greatly promoted the development of national economy and improved the living standards. However, under the surface of the rapid development in the real estate market, there have been some problems. Due to the imperfect system of the real estate market and a large of speculators on the market, leading to irrational exuberance on house prices.The irrational development of the real estate market caused confusion and increased the economic burden of people's lives. The real estate market funds rely heavily on bank loans. If the bubble of real estate prices continued to expand, China's financial system will be charge with huge losses. Because the real estate industry is very important to us, so government should take control measures to curb the housing bubble.In recent years, the state issued a number of policies to control real estate market, including monetary policy, land policy, tax policy. The real estate market is a capital-intensive industry, therefore, monetary policy has become a common methods used by the central bank. The effectiveness of monetary policy on the real estate prices has become a hot topic in academic field.By consulting the literature and found that most scholars in the study the effectiveness of monetary policy on prices are always from the policy variables which interested in, without establishing a clear regulatory path. Thus, this paper will put the study of the effectiveness of monetary policy of house prices based on the analysis of monetary policy transmission mechanism.This paper is divided into six chapters, to study the effects of monetary policy on the real estate prices.The second chapter, which is the overview of the development of real estate market, is to bring out the research problem:housing prices bubble. After the housing system reform in 1998, the real estate market was developed rapidly. On the one hand, its development led to the national economy growth, to meet the housing needs of people, on the other hand, housing prices so high that a large number of people can't afford. It is because the real estate is closely related to financial institutions, macroeconomic, people's lives, so monetary policy should actively control the real estate market, particularly the housing prices bubble.The third chapter is literature review and evaluation. To study the effectiveness of monetary policy on prices, must research the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy at first. As a result, the paper divides the monetary policy transmission mechanism into money channel and credit channel. Then summarize the literature of various channels of the effectiveness of prices regulation, but the duration of the various scholars and policy choices of different variables are different, the conclusions are also not the same.ChapterⅣ:the theory of monetary policy analysis on housing prices. First, this chapter gives a brief description of the type of monetary policy tools, and then, does the research of the theoretical and practical results of the two channels respectively. Finally, give the review of the effectiveness of monetary policy on the real estate market in recent years.ChapterⅤ:the empirical research. Define and explain the data sources of the empirical variables used, and then use conventional methods of analysis of time series, including the unit root, co-integration, Granger causality and variance decomposition, after the empirical research, present conclusions and summary of the empirical research ChapterⅥ:the policy recommendations. According to the discussed theoretical and empirical analysis of monetary policy transmission mechanism above, this chapter is going to discuss how to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy on the real estate prices. On the one hand, to clear the pathway conduction of mechanism itself, on the other hand, with the reform of land system, tax system and so on, the effectiveness of monetary policy will growing to be more effective.Through the analysis, this paper has its own characteristics:First, the analysis of the effectiveness of monetary policy on housing prices is based on the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy, not only highlighting the importance of the pathway, but also laid the theoretical basis for research questions. The problem how to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy can be considered as how to make the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy work well. Therefore, this paper focuses on how to improve the effectiveness of the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy.Second, two channels of transmission mechanisms of monetary policy are together considered to study the effectiveness of monetary policy, with qualitative and quantitative effects of the respective channel, which provide more reference methods for the problem the paper studied.Third, in order to discuss the effectiveness monetary policy on the real estate prices, adds two important non-monetary policy control variables to do empirical research together, so that all explanatory variables of channels are under the same conditions to explain their respective effect on the control of the real estate prices. |
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