Raw Milk And Fresh Milk Price Fluctuation And Regulation Mechanism In China

China's dairy industry developed rapidly, but for a long time it's hard for the farmers to increase their incomes. The farmers'earnings mainly depend on the price of raw milk. Raw milk price fluctuation influence raw milk production. So raw milk price excessive fluctuation directly affects dairy production and raw milk supply. And it causes dairy productions'safety accidents occurred constantly. And it seriously affects the sustained developing of China's dairy industry. In this paper, Census X12 seasonal adjustment method and Hodrick-Prescott filter are mainly used to study the fluctuation of raw milk price and fresh milk price.By using the Hodrick-Prescott filter, I analyzed the data of raw milk price from January 2008 to December 2010. The result indicates that raw milk price rise in long term trend. The prices are included in two cycles, and the second one's extent is higher than the first one. By using Census X12 seasonal adjustment method, I analyzed the data of monthly price of fresh milk from 2000 to 2009. The result shows that fresh milk price rise year by year. The seasonal changes are obviously. The trend of changes is increase, decrease then increase. The seasonal fluctuation of fresh milk price is enhancing as time goes by. By using the Hodrick-Prescott filter, I separate the trend factor and cycle factor of fresh milk price. The result indicates that the regulation of long-term trend of fresh milk price is up-down-up. There are 4 turning points in the sample series. The series go through 4 cycles for which the average length is four years. Raw milk price and fresh milk price were predicted by using Holt-Winters multiple seasonal model. The result indicates that the price of raw milk and fresh milk will rise in the next two years.Combining the domestic and the foreign successful practical experience, raw milk price forming mechanism, benefits distribution mechanism, the third-party mechanism and raw milk source mechanism have been given to complete China's milk price mechanism.