Study On The Transmission Effect Of International Raw Milk Price On Domestic Raw Milk Price

Dairy industry is a sunrise industry in the field of agricultural economy and an important part in the field of people's health livelihood.With the increase of the agricultural market openness,China's dairy trade has grown rapidly and remained in a state of net import for a long time,which has brought serious challenges to the development of domestic dairy industry,especially the raw milk industry.In recent years,the price of raw milk at home and abroad has fluctuate frequently and fiercely.As a result,the domestic raw milk market has repeatedly fallen into a downturn,and development has been obviously restricted.Therefore,it is of great significance to clarify the price transfer relationship between domestic and foreign raw milk,which contributes to alleviating the loss caused by the abnormal price fluctuation in the domestic raw milk market,avoiding the potential risk of the market,maintaining the health and stability of the industry and promoting the development of the whole society and the economy.Based on this,this paper analyzes the current situation of the development of the raw milk market at home and abroad and uses objective facts to describe the impact of import shocks on the domestic raw milk market.At the same time,this paper analyzes domestic and international raw milk price trends and fluctuation characteristics and finds that the prices of the two markets have the common trend of rising first and then falling with similar fluctuation characteristics.Therefore,this paper uses the rolling cointegration analysis and BEKK-GARCH model to discuss the price transmission effect between domestic and foreign raw milk market from 2008 to 2016 in terms of mean spillover and volatility spillover.The empirical research shows that the price of domestic and international raw milk market has obvious transmission effect.The price signal is mainly transferred along "international to domestic".When the price of international raw milk changes by 1%,the price of domestic raw milk change by 0.27% in the same direction.At the same time,the international raw milk market will also rely on the trade routes to generate price fluctuations in the domestic market.In a certain period,the fluctuation of international price will aggravate the fluctuation of domestic price,which causes greater time-varying shocks and lasting impacts.However,the price transmission effect of the international raw milk market on the domestic market has the characteristics of stage differences and time-varying characteristics.The domestic milk source development situation and the dairy import trade situation will have an impact on the intensity of international price transmission effects.Based on this,this paper puts forward some corresponding countermeasures and suggestions,so as to comprehensively deal with the price transmission effect from the international market.Innovations of this paper:(1)Taking the raw milk market as an example,this paper explores the price transmission effect of international raw milk market on domestic market from the spillover effect level in the background of import impact.There are new ideas in the perspective of research.(2)The rolling cointegration analysis method used in this paper is a statistical technique that discusses the time-varying covariance relationship among variables and extracts data information and then improve the validity of results to a greater extent.The model method can describes the time-varying overview of the mean transmission relationship between domestic and international raw milk prices,so it has a certain degree of novelty.(3)Since the current related research still focuses on the price mean spillover effect,this paper continues to use the BEKK-GARCH model to examine the volatility transfer effect of international raw milk market price to domestic market price in the same theoretical framework,thus making the research content of this paper more innovative.