Research Of The Relationship Between Logistics Industry Development And Economic Growth

With the rapid development of the economic globalization and the modern science and technology, modern logistics obtains rapid development world widely and becomes an emerging industry with great market potential, as an industry under new economic conditions, the product of new social specialization and an advanced economy operation way.As a compound service industry, logistics has a close relationship with economic growth, and it is an important part of the national economy. By involving wide field and absorbing numerous employments, it greatly promotes the production and consumption. It plays an important role in the adjustment of industrial structure, the transformation of the mode of economic development and the competition of national economic. Furthermore, the rapid growth of economy can also increase logistics needs, thus boost the rapid development of logistics industry. From the current development situation, however, logistics development and economic growth theory research apparently fall behind the development of practice. In order to realize the fast development of economic, guide the logistics development, accelerating research of the relationship between logistics developmept and economic growth is strategically important and has realistic significance.This paper focuses on relationship between logistics industry development and the economic growth, conducted in-depth study and discussion.(1) On the basis of discussing the research background and significance, this paper analyses the research status at home and abroad of the relationship between the domestic and international logistics industry development and the economic growth, and be formed the current research framework.(2) By Selecting the index series of characterization of logistics industry development and economic growth, from the angle of time domain, this paper establishes the long-term equilibrium model and short-term disequilibrium model of logistics industry development and economic growth of China based on the co-integration analysis theory. Results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between China's logistics industry development and economic growth, and when logistics deviates from the long-term equilibrium relations, it will take some adjustments to pull unbalanced state back to equilibrium. (3) From the angle of time domain, this paper establishes Granger causality model of China logistics industry development and economic growth. Results show that two-way Granger causality exists between the China Total Logistics Value series and the GDP series which means that Total Logistics Value and GDP series are two-way Granger Cause. Results also show that one-way Granger causality exists between China Total Logistics Cost series and GDP series, which means that GDP series is the Granger Cause of Total Logistics Cost. Results show too that China Value-Added of Logistics series and GDP series are one-way Granger cause, which means that GDP series is the Granger Cause of Value-Added of Logistics series.(4) From the angle of frequency domain, this paper establishes Cross-spectral Analysis model of China logistics industry development and economic growth. Results show that the China Total Logistics Value, Total Logistics Cost and Value-Added of Logistics have strong coherence with economic growth. Besides, at the average sense of logistics industry development and the whole process of economic growth cycle fluctuations, Total Logistics Value series lags behind the GDP series 0.7 year, Total Logistics Cost series lags GDP series 2.3 years, Value-Added of Logistics series and GDP series are synchronously. In the final, this paper divides logistic development indicators into three groups:antecedence, consistent and lag.