On Relationship Between Regional Transport Development And Economic Growth

Transportation, the main infrastructure of the national economy, connects the produce, distribution, exchange and consumption of the social economy, ensures the proper function of our economy, and provides backup and guarantees the development of the society. By improving the quality and capacity of the transportation, it can enhance the connectivity among different regions to provide optimized allocation of passengers and freight. Then there would be enlarged transport demand generated by economic development. As a result, the space human lives in would be expanded, distribution of productivity would be altered and it can see boom of the economy. Not only guarantees the smooth development of the society and regional economy, transportation is also the production department of the regional economic system and progress the regional economy.This thesis, using Xinjiang as the research object, mainly foucues on the characteristics and rules of the relationship between the economic system and transport system. Then there would be a better understanding and foresight for the trend of future transport system of Xingjiang, so as to make rational planning and build an effective and efficient transport system. It would have significant effects on meeting the needs of Xinjiang's economic development.This thesis tries to use co-integrate analysis and Error Correction Model to take up research on the relationship between transport development and regional economy of Xinjiang Province from both the demand and supply parts. For the demand part, the main object is passenger demand and freight demand.In supply analysis, on the basis of co-integration, an error correction model (ECM) was established to describe the relationship between GDP and the transportation factors that affects its change. EG two-step method was used for the test of causation. It can be seen from the study that the freight volume has the greatest impact on GDP, and civilian cars have little impact. In the short run, only the mileage has a reverse influence on GDP; the freight turnover, passenger turnover and civilian car ownership have positive influence.With regard to the freight demand analysis, an Error Correction Model, based on co-integrate analysis, was developed to depict the process of its movement from short-period volatility to long term equilibrium. The result indicates that all the notation of the estimate coefficients are the same as predicted and there is long stable relationship among freight transport, GDP and the price. It also shows that the increase of the industry gross production is the main factor that affects the freight transport and they move forward at almost the same rate. In addition, there is little indication that price would affect the freight demand.For the passenger transport analysis, a passenger demand Error Correction Model was constructed based on co-integrate analysis first, then, Recursive Regression and Chow test was adopt to research the passenger transport for different stages. The result shows that there is co-integrate relationship between passenger transport, GDP, city population ratio and price. Economic boom and population are the main factors the affects the passenger demand, but there was no evidence showed that price would affect the passenger demand. It happened that the factors that affect the passenger transport gave rise to striking changes in 1990, and then the staged ECM further verified the status of the factors that posed influence on the passenger transport.