Empirical Study On The Equilibrium Between Agricultural Futures Market And Cash Market Of China

In our economic systerm, agricultural futures market plays an important role in smoothing agricultural prices'fluctuating guiding farmers'growing. Thus,the relationship between agricultural products and agricultural futures market has got more and more scholars' attention.This paper tries to introduce panel cointegration method, seeks the equilibrium relationship between themBased on the comprehension of the domestic and foreign research venation, This paper useing panel cointegration,error correction model and granger causality test, studies our country agricultural futures market and cash market price, and then uses the factor equilibrium relation and information share methods analysising the efficiency of agricultural futures market in China.The study has he following aspects of a conclusion: 1)There are equilibrium relationship between China agricultural futures market price and the spot market price 2) through Granger causality test I found that the futures market is the reasons of the spot market ,namely the price of futures markets in the spot market is a leader. 3) both of agricultural futures market and spot market would adjust to equilibrium in the future. But the futures price adjusts faster than spot price, it also means agricultural futures price is more sensitive to the spot price. 4) China agricultural futures market has haven the founction of price discovering.After recent development of futures market'price discovery function is gradually appear in some degree..