Empirical Study On The Influence Of Export Volatility And Export Growth

Export is one of the most successful field in China's reform and opening-up. With the rapid growth of export trade, export volatility is an important phenomenon in the process of export trade development, and export volatility often tend linked with export growth, this study has an important significance that of export growth in export fluctuation and the influence of export cycle operation rule in understanding, understanding the relations of stability and development and realize the sustainable development of the export trade.The article use export trade cycle theory, random endogenous growth theory knowledge, use HP, BP, CF filter and variance decomposition method capture our export trade fluctuation volume and structure characteristics, and empirical study on the influence of export volatility and export growth with the dynamic GMM model."Why study export fluctuation and the influence of export growth?" The first chapter of this paper, paper to choose a background and significance of the research; Combing the literature review at home and abroad, introduces its research ideas, says research structure, targets and contents, and sums up the articles may new."What is export fluctuation? How?" determination of export fluctuations 11 in order to define the concept of export fluctuations in the second chapter, first the concept of economic cycle briefly methodizing and on the basis of the export fluctuations, and introduces the definition of export cycle.at the characteristic indexes. Then it introduces this thesis determination of filtering method and export fluctuations dynamic GMM model."How fluctuate of our export?" - the third chapter based on export real growth rate, using direct method and eliminate trend growth rate to investigate the characteristics and laws of China export trade fluctuation, China's export trade fluctuation belongs to the typical growth-type fluctuations, and fluctuations in the early 1990s acuteness into after middle relatively flat. Further use variance decomposition models to analyze the structure characteristics of Chinese export fluctuations."How effects export fluctuation on export growth? Is there difference in different area?" The fourth chapter .the research on China's export fluctuations and export growth using GMM method, explores the inner link that between export volatility and export growth, so that this make this research has more practical meaning. Study found that China's export fluctuation on export growth has negative effects. The influence has different level with government intervention in different regions, in area of high intervention, this effect is negative, and in area of high intervention, this effect is negative , this effect is positive.