Research On Programme Risk Management Modeling

Compared with a single project, program is facing a much more complex risk environment. According to the mechanism and property, program risk can be classified by independent risk and related risk. Spreading in the various stages of sub-project, independent risks'probability and the losses are spontaneous and random, which will not affect each other. But related risks are different, because they affect each other, and continuously transmit, diffuse, even form risk chain during the various process, causing superposition and amplification. Therefore, independent risk and related risk should be investigated separately.For the independent risk, with risk loss considered, the optimization model for direct losses and indirect losses are established separately. The additivity and convergence of direct loss distribution imply that integrated risk management of multiple sub-projects in program will not increase the level of direct loss. Instead, it will create the conditions for the law of large numbers, enhance the robustness of risk assessment, save management costs, improve risk management efficiency, and bring economies of scale. Establish the conditional expectation model for indirect for loss, so that enterprises can focus on the optimization of serious losses management, make full use of their risk tolerance information. According to the optimization model between the management costs and indirect risk loss, there are two methods to improve risk management, including the improvement of risk management level of indirect losses, as well as the reasonable positioning between income and risk in macro-management.For the related risk, according to the system dynamics and discrete dynamics, this paper reveals the relevance of risk transfer mechanism. The optimization model of related risk established on the basis of discrete dynamics shows both the risk function and balance function under different risk management strategies, optimizes the risk management control strategies (risk management costs) and risk loss level during the various stages of the sub-project.With the collaboration management and flexible management ideas, this thesis introduces the concept of risk buffer mechanism, establishes the comprehensive management model for both independent risk and related risk, which has a certain significance for program risk management, and is also benefit for the risk management to convert from extensive management to intensive management.