The Measurement And Countermeasures Research On Fragility Of Listed Commercial Banks In China

The formation of banking system fragility is quite a complex process, many factors in economic system can influence banking system fragility. From the year of 2008, the Reform and Opening of china has been over 30 years. As in the year 2007, the crisis of subordinated debt happened, and then with the financial crisis. In the background of financial liberalization, the banking system is inevitably affected, banking system fragility will be further intensified. In view of this, this paper selects samples of listed commercial banks in china, study mainly on the degree of banking system fragility and the causes. Concrete contents include:(1)Banking system fragility theory carding at home and abroad, define the concept of banking system fragility, and distinguish from the related concepts. (2)Choose factors from the macro, the medium and the micro level, analyse the formation mechanism of banking system fragility. (3)Construct the index system of measurement of fragility, make sure the degree of fragility and then compare them in the spects of change before and after listing. (4)On the premise of measurement, analyse influencing factors of banking system fragility. (5)This paper gives suggestions on prevention and remission of banking system fragility in the level of the macro, the medium and the micro.Basic conclusions in the thesis:1. Formation mechanism of banking system fragility in china is different from other countries. In the macro level, fluctuation of macroeconomic, financial liberalization and market competition are all the reasons of the risk. In the medium level, soft budget constraint, controlled financial system and system vicissitude can result in system risk. In the micro level, banks and enterprises'shortages in property system and management system themselves are the causes of accumulation of fragility.2. The ability of risk control has improved after listing, ratio of non-performing loan has been dramatically reduced, capital adequacy ratio has been greatly improved, but ROA(return on assets) has no significant change, it also indicates that listed commercial banks are still essentially extensive, the share reform must earnestly advance in materially.3. The condition of listed commercial banks' fragility is unstable, the tendency assumes fluctuant. Concretely speaking, the degree of fragility experiences the change from high to low, and also, state-owned banks are more severe than joint-stock banks, but along with state-owned banks' listing one after another, the disparity between them is reducing gradually, and tends to be the same.4. The fragility of listed commercial banks is closely related with the factors in the macro, the medium and the micro level, and the factors in the micro level has the greatest effect. In the macro level:The economic growth can reduce the banking system fragility effectively, but the rise of foreign loan ratio of debt can intensify banking system fragility. In the medium level:the financial deepening level can alleviate the banking system fragility to a certain extent, but the fast increasing of the growth rate of loans will accelerate the banking system fragility. In the micro level:the rise of deposit-loan ratio causes the banking system facing with the fluid risk, that intensifies system fragility, but the growth of ROA enhances bank profit level, the asset quality obtains the enhancement, they all effectivly guarantee steady management of banking system.Countermeasure suggestions:1. suggestions in the macro level:Continues to maintain the good situation of macro economic, improve the operation environment of banking system.(1)Perfect capital market structure. Advance the construction of the multi-level capital markets by order, perfect direct financing structure and indirect financing structure, and disperse risk of banks. (2)Advance financial liberalization carefully. Strengthen the liberalization of interest rate reform and the marketization of exchange rate reform, the policy system arrangements of government authorities must be complement with the financial liberalization and control the steps of financial liberalization carefully in order to avoid bringing the nonessential risk for the banking system. (3)Establish and perfect society credit system. Create credit database and open to public comprehensivly, reduce moral risk and adverse selection, which due to information asymmetry.2. Suggestions in the medium level:pay the careful attention on medium measurement system construction, forms a good financial ecology environment.(1)Formulate supervision law strickly. Strengthen the construction of financial legal system, and supervision authorities strengthen strict law enforcement in the foundation which has legal support. Maintain creditor's benefit earnestly, and supervise the banking organization to guarantee steady management. (2)Construct risk monitor system. Take various subsystems as the support, construct the crosswise and the longitudinal risk monitoring network, transmit message data effectivly, and guarantee the supervision whole coordinated and real effective. (3)Construct financial safety net. Construct three effective defense lines:access and withdrawal mechanism, the deposit insurer system and lender of last resort, increase the financial supervision efficiency, in order to reduce banking system fragility in china.3. Suggestions in the micro level:Strengthen self-construction of banking system, promote internal management level and anti-risk ability.(1)Deepening reform of banking property right system. Make modern financial enterprises which with clear property right and separated from political rights, introduce advanced management pattern overseas and unifies actual national condition in china, perfect corporate governance company, raise the efficiency of government, and promote competitive power of banks. (2) Consummate internal governance mechanism effectively. Urge to make the power and responsibility clear between the shareholders and the managers, keep in balance and the intercoordination relations mutually, strengthen construction on internal governance mechanism and external governance mechanism, cultivate and consummate the professional manager market positively. (3)Raise the level of bank risk management. Construct a scientific, effective and perfect risk management system, train the talented person in risk management positively, and promote the effect of the risk management comprehensively.