The Research And Analysis Of Cold-rolled Sheet's Price

As an important pillar of industry and an important means of production which supports the all-round development of industrialization, steel occupies an crucial position. Cold-rolled steel is one of the high-end products in steel production, and is the key to its downstream industry, such as automobile industry and home appliance industry. However, with the highly monopoly of iron ore market and the influence of international financial crisis, the domestic cold-rolled steel manufacturers are facing huge challenges. It's a big problem for manufacturers how to keep profit with rising raw material cost and labor cost. This paper analyses the constitution factors of steel prices through qualitative and quantitative methods, and downstream demand and macro economy, and then arrives at a relatively effective price prediction model of cold-rolled steel, and provides solutions for cost controlling.this paper introduces the background and significance, pointing out that the domestic cold-rolled steel manufacturers are facing with problems and needing solutions.summarized the research achievements of four aspects, which are factors of price constitution, factors affecting prices, methods of price prediction and price management. The innovation of this paper is also brought forward in this part.The paper analyses several factors which constitute steel prices, including the labor cost, raw material cost(such as the cost of iron ore), technology investment cost, transportation cost, depreciable cost of fixed assets, cost of marketing and time cost, profit of steel manufacturers and dealers. Through qualitative and quantitative analysis, the paper verifies the correlation between steel prices and these factors, and forecasts the tendency of steel prices by predicting the factors'tendency.Next the paper focuses on the influence factors of cold-rolled steel price, from the aspects of downstream demand and macro economy. In the model, 1mm cold-rolled sheet is used as proxy for cold-rolled steel, and prices at the end of each month as the price time series. With the monthly price of cold-rolled sheet from September 2008 to November 2010, the paper constructs an ARMA model, and tests the degree fitting and stability.Then aiming at the situation of cold-rolled steel, the paper develops price management strategy. On one hand, manufacturers should reduce the cost, or cost-effective strategy. On the other hand, market factors should be taken into consideration.