China's Banking Credit Cycle And Its Determinants

In this paper, bank credit cycle theory and its macroeconomic effects were elaborated. Then this paper summarized the basic characteristics of the China's banking credit cycle sincere China's reform and opening up and use the empirical method of VAR to study the credit cycle nearly a decade and concluded:the decisive factor of bank credit in China cycle, is the "money supply", "nominal interest rates" and "price Index". The "nominal interest rate", "price Index" on the credit cycle has more influence than "money supply". And "savings and loan spreads" almost no effect on the credit cycle, reflecting the planned economy with a means of macro-control behavior of bank credit in China is still play a substantial lead. Finally, the central bank credit control measures and management measures of commercial bank credit were proposed.