Credit Risk Analysis Of The Real Estate Listed Companies In China Based On KMV Model

The real estate industry has the characteristics of high debt, the lifeblood of their business is bank loans. If the borrowers can not pay off their loans, it will have a great negative impact on the national economy. Most real estate companies loans are from banks, the banks became the accumulation of transaction risk and the natural place for risk, and naturally, credit risk is also the bank's eternal topic. It is the financial institutions'and regulatory management's main target and the core content. It directly affects the economic life of modern society in all aspects, but also affects a country's macroeconomic policies and economic development, and even affects the entire global economic's stability and harmonious development. Therefore, determining the credit risk and controlling the business risk is important for the banks. This article lists the real estate companies as research subjects, using the classical model of risk management, KMV model, to the real estate business and to measure default risk and exploring its applicability in our country, and as a basis for bank's lending to have a better risk management.The using of KMV model provides commercial bank an internal methods in risk management,and a reference value whether give loans to customers to bank.Firstly, The article specifys the impact of real estate credit risk factors and formation mechanism from the perspective of macro-and micro,pointing out that the real estate industry credit risk measurement and management is the problem to be solved;and chooses the KMV from the current measurement techniques and different risk measurement model:CreditMetrics model, KMV model, CreditRisk + models, and Credit Portfolio View and other models as the more suitable model. Combing "Basel AgreementⅢ" rating on the commercial bank's internal requirements, basing on a large number of publicly available datas of listed companies and modern statistical analysis,by using the KMV model to analysis the blue chip and poor performance stocks of listed companies, we can know that blue chip stocks'default probability is lower than the poor performance stocks'probability.The KMV model is suitble for our stock market. This part of the research is to solve the problem before. Next by doing regression analysis, testing the Listed Companies' short term and long term loans and the expected default probability's existence of relationship, provide listed company credit monitoring and creditors bound measures. The research results give us some useful recommendations for commercial banks in the field of how to identify risks, evaluate risk, credit risk spread and reduce the real estate'credit risks. It has an important significance on the maintenance of financial order and norms of economic behavior of companies.