Xinjiang's Terms Of Trade Change And Influencing Factor Analysis

Economic globalization and regional economic integration have been became an irreversible trend, the import and export trade advance a country or a region of rapid economic growth. Xinjiang is located in the hinterland of the Eurasian continent, the East connects with the Mainland, the West borders eight countries, that is an important gateway to the west, the study between its terms of trade and economic growth is of great significance.Terms of trade are an important indicator of the change of a country's benefit from foreign trade. The benefit is directly related with terms of trade. It is necessary to put NBTT, ITT and SFTT together to consider in order to comprehensively measuring the gains from trade. In this paper, the change of every ratio for the terms of trade in Xinjiang between 1995 and 2008 is studied based on facts. The following findings have been concluded: the ratio of the net barter terms of trade is falling constantly with fluctuation while the ratio of the income terms of trade is rising prominently with fluctuation, and the single factor terms of trade is also improving.Based on theoretical analysis on factors affecting the changes of terms of trade, including that economic growth, import/export structure, industry structure, FDI, exchange rate, customs duties, geography distribution of foreign trade and trade policy and so on factors. The empirical analysis finds that: two factors can be extracted by principal component analysis, product component and structure component, that are the output of the main principal component include gross domestic product, total imports and exports, industrial structure and labor productivity; the structure of the main principal component include the export commodity of structure index and imported goods of structure index. Xinjiang's foreign trade growth is to increase the number is based on the expense of quality, that is, high-speed, low efficiency of foreign trade growth mode. Xinjiang's exports is mainly to low-cost labor-intensive and resource-based products, single structure, low-grade, lack of brand-name products, mainly in low price to win, that is difficult to enter a higher level of international competition and improve their competitiveness. In this model, Xinjiang's trade volume is growing at the same time, but the price terms of trade are continuing deterioration. The extensive trade growth mode of attach importance to quantity but not to quality is no longer suitable forXinjiang's economic development. To this end, we need to change the export structure that is not entirely reasonable at this stage in Xinjiang, export levels are still low-level of condition. Based on the influencing factors for the change of terms of trade, the paper suggests some countermeasures to improve terms of trade in Xinjiang and the foreign trade interest at last. Such as depending on the industry's superiority, expand the export of local commodities, build well environment of foreign trade in Xinjiang and construct corresponding facilities to bring the function of passageway into full play.