The Changes Of China's Net Barter Terms Of Trade And Analysis On Its' Main Influencing Factors

Terms of trade is an important index that judges a country's trade benefit from foreign trade, through Studying changes of terms of trade of a country in a certain time,we may know the information about the degree of this country participating in international trade and the trade benefit she gaining from it,it will help to formulate foreign trade strategy and policy.This paper's object is china's net barter terms of trade,we can draw the conclusion that china's net barter terms of trade dropped in last few years through studying the changes of china's net barter terms of trade during 1981s to 2007s.This paper can be divided into the following parts.First,this paper reviews the relative references home and abroad to know about the research results on this subject,which become the basis of the following analysis.Second, this paper calculates the primary goods' and industrial manufactured goods' index of net barter terms of trade,then it also calculates china's net barter terms of trade,the result shows that china's net barter terms of trade declined during this period.Third,this paper performs empirical and theoretical analysis of the main influencing factors to the net barter terms of trade. At the end,this paper proposes some relatives policies and suggestion on the basis of the above empirical and theoretical analysis.The key points of this paper are the main factors which influence china's net barter terms of trade,there are economic growth,exchange rate,foreign direct investment(FDI),import tariff and so on.The main innovation spots are using empirical and theoretical analysis which contains unit root,VAR model,co integration test,causality test,variance decomposition and impulse.