The Research On The Forecast Of Logistics Cost Of Coal Enterprise Based On Data Mining

Since the 2009, both the coal reserves and production in Inner Mongolia are the first nationwide. In the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", the region is not only promoting the large-scale coal bases construction but also enhancing the level of modernization of coal enterprises. But in our country, the labor efficiency of the coal industry and enterprise input-output ratio is much lower than the developed countries. Forecast of logistics cost is regarded as the basis to manage, control, plan and decide the logistics cost. Data mining technology can contribute to the forecast and control of coal enterprises logistics costs so as to improve the business efficiency.In this paper, the writer makes a study on the forecast methods of Logistics cost of coal enterprise in Inner Mongolia, with the thought of logistics system as the guide and the forecast theory of data mining and modern logistics as the basis. By analyzing the current logistics management status of coal enterprises, the writer finds out the structure and influencing factors which have something to do with the logistics cost. With the data mining method, regression and time series analysis method, the research is carried on. Moreover, neural network model and grey system model are applied, which lead to the good result. It is of great use in developing the new methods and technical approaches. The main research results are summarized as follows:At first, the paper simply introduced different forecast methods and principles. Then, the definition and forecast theory of logistics cost is introduced, and the characteristics of coal logistics as well. Based on GB/T 20523-2006 "Composition and Calculation of Logistics Cost", the influencing factors of logistics cost in coal industry are determined. Next, the forecast is carried out with the regression analysis of data mining method, time series analysis, neural network analysis and grey system respectively. Although the principle is different, the effects are very good. If condition permitting, we should compare all the different predication result to get the more reasonable data."speak with the data"and realize the importance of cost forecast. Finally is the conclusion and related Suggestions.With the development of data mining technology and enhancement of people's awareness of logistics cost management, it is of great significance for us to lay more emphasis on the research of predication methods of coal enterprise'logistics cost, which can improve our country's logistics cost Forecast and management level, also promote our country's management modernization and scientific development.