Gray Prediction In The Defense Enterprise Project Cost

The grey system theory, which has multi-subject synthesis, intersection and abstraction, mainly deals with the uncertain system with small samples. Grey modeling is the core of grey system theory and bridges grey theory and practice. Based on the grey modeling, the grey forecast is a way of forecast to provide basis for the plan of the system, which educes the trend of system development by the forecast model that contacts the by past system information with the system information of future. The cost forecast of construction project is an uncertain system with small samples, so its forecast model can be established by the grey theory.This paper aiming at the cost forecast of construction project in the national defence enterprise, established the grey forecast model that offers basis for the invite public bidding and the finish-accept of construction project. Firstly, for establishing self-contained forecast model, the factors that affect the cost of project was obtained by analyzing the structure of project cost. Secondly, the theory of the grey forecast was discussed in detail, and then contrasted the GM(1,N) model and the GM (1,N,x⁰) I model in the computation process of modeling. Thirdly, referenced to the historical data of project cost, the grey forecast model of every subprojects were established for the construction project in the national defence enterprise. Finally, an actual project cost forecast example was given to prove the forecast precision. The contrast of the results shows that the forecast precision of the forecast model is high, and it can be used in practice to direct the invite public bidding and the bid.