Study On The Path Of RMB Regionalization Under CAFTA Framework

Under the background of financial globalization, the exploring of regional monetary and financial cooperation never comes to the end, and the way to cooperation has become more clear and bright since the birth of Chiang Mai Initiatives (CMI). China's positive performance during CMI implementation process, and the responsibility for the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization, which established good cooperation basis for RMB regionalization.The China-Asean Free Trade Association (CAFTA) has been formally established on January 1st, 2010. CAFTA, as the third largest trade area in the world, the first free trade association in the Asia, will gain great influence on the economic, financial, and cultural cooperation. On the background of CAFTA completing and Asia monetary and financial cooperation speeding, the discussion on RMB regionalization and globalization has gain more far-reaching significance.This paper discusses the problems of RMB regionalization from two aspects in terms of demand for demand in CAFTA. On one hand, macroeconomic analysis is made to discuss China economic strength, macro-financial environment, the foreign exchange reserves and the related systems, which are used to judge the feasibility and necessity of RMB regionalization. Research shows that China's development on economics, trade, and institution create favorable conditions for RMB regionalization, and the present situation also shows that the role of standard regional currency has been laid for RMB. Therefore, RMB regionalization is possible from macroscopic perspective, which is also very necessary in the current situation. On the other hand, based on the trade data from 1999 to 2009, quantitative analysis is used to analyze the demand scale for trade of RMB in microscopic point, and predict trade scale of China-Asean from 2010 to 2013 (2010 data hasn't published yet) by using grey prediction analysis and Matlab calculation method, then to identify that there is a solid trade demand platform for RMB regionalization in the CAFTA framework. Finally, following the above, this paper proposes the specific strategies and path for RMB regionalization under the CAFTA framework.The innovation of this paper lies in:(1) The paper is concerned more about concrete practice in the research of RMB regionalization. From stated in literature review of the study, we can see that the academic study of RMB regional internationalization has been widely spread. Scholars have made a lot of research on the causes, realistic foundation and development situation of RMB regionalization. But overall, the RMB regionalization research still exist inadequacy in theory. There are more outcomes in basic theory research, but less on the practical applications of the research. Current research mainly concerned on the feasibility of the RMB regionalization of strategic position, but less on combining with a region.(2) This paper using the Grey Forecasting Model to analyze and forecast the trade demanding carrier of RMB regionalization. The author, by big amount of theoretical research, found that impetus of RMB regionalization, whether market promotion or government leading, is inseparable from the carrier of international trade, So, trade scale will be the primary factor to determinate the RMB regionalization process. This article is the earliest paper using Grey Measuring Method and MATLAB software in RMB regionalization under the framework of CAFTA.