Research On The Transfer Mechanism Of Project Risk In The Global Vehicle Development Process Based On The Critical Chain

With the fast development of social economy, a modern project has higher requirments for its completion rate, duration optimization, high quality, and the optimiazation of resource allocation and scheduling. However, during the implementation of a project, project management methods can hardly meet all the above requirments at the same time due to various kinds of uncertainties. Thus, researchers have to improve project planning and management methods continously. The emergence of Critical Chain Project Management makes the system of project management methods more complete, and makes it possible to meet the abouve requirements at the same time.In the vehicle industry, it involves many factors to put forward a new vehicle model. Risks can occur in any section, which may make the project schedule delayed and the subsequent work seriously affected. Therefore, it becomes a hot topic among reserchers about how to deal with the increasingly complex market and demand, and how to handle the potential risks in every section. With global vehicle development project as its research objective, this paper utilizes CCPM and studies the transfer mechanism of duration risks. In the third part, I analyze relevant features of a critical chain, and set up an algorithmic system on how to find a critical chain with which we can find out the critical chain between two stages of vehicle development process. In the fourth part, I set up a conceptual model and a mathematical model in order to ananlyze the effect of the duration risk happening in one processstep on the duration of subsequent steps or even the whole process. In the fifth part, the buffer time of a project is determined based on the results of duration risk transfer.This paper can help managers who are in charge of veichle development understand and analyze the risks embodied in every processstep of the whole project and their effects on subsequent steps, thus to avoid or reduce duration risks of the project and improve the operation ability of the whold project.