A Study Of Project Delivery System Selection Based On Production Frontier Theory

It is crucial for project owners to select a project delivery system (PDS) during early-stage decision-making for construction projects, which are quite difficult to measure and quantify because of the existing randomness, complexity and openness. Therefore, difficulties inevitably occur during the construction of objective selecting standards of the PDS. The thesis is to construct the production frontier of construction projects using the non-parametric method within the theory of production frontier, so as to help owners select an appropriate PDS, and thus construct and verify selecting modeling of PDS.This thesis studied the feasibility of the production frontier nonparametric method measuring efficiencies of construction projects on the basis of studies on existing PDS selecting methods and production frontier. Then, it constructed the free disposal production frontier, with regard to the randomness of construction projects, using the bootstrap method and proposed the free disposal hull (FDH) based on statistical inference; and used the improved FDH to construct the partial production frontier with regard to complexity of construction projects, thus laying a theoretical foundation for building selecting standards of PDS. Further, this thesis constructed an index system for selecting standards of PDS through the literature review and questionnaire surveys, applied Bayesian estimation of structural equation modeling to the amendment of the index system with regard to dimension limits of the production frontier nonparametric method, then used the obtained data to build the corresponding production frontier of construction projects, and lastly used case-based reasoning methods to construct and verify selecting modeling of construction projects based on the production frontier omitted one-dimensional environmental factors.