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Research On The Assessment Of Stock Value And The Fair Value Based On The Perspective Of Behavioral Finance

Posted on:2010-07-14Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:X CaoFull Text:PDF
GTID:2189330338982224Subject:Finance
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After the outbreak of the financial crisis, the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) meets with an unprecedented challenge. It seems that people can not be rational to assess the value of the stock as the theory tells us. The behavioral finance theory has been gradually accepted by people because it is much more accord with the practice. At the same time, the fair value measurement was condemned to be the culprit who causes the unsteadiness of the financial. It was even appealed to suspend. Scholar both at home and abroad make some achievement about behavioral finance, stock valuation and the fair value, but the research about the relationship between them was seldom discussed. So how the market participants assess the stock value and what the fair value has affected with the assessment of stock value are the focus of this paper.The participants of the stock market are irrational. They are subject to the impact of mental activity which will induce systematic errors. This paper uses the latest achievement at home and abroad for reference. Through the questionnaire survey analysis, we found that the participants of the stock market are much more focus on the macroeconomic message; China's stock market is a typical "policy market". So they often ignore the information of the financial statements, etc. Due to the psychological impact of bias, when the participants access the stock value they didn't use the discounted cash flow technique which was widely used in theory. They often use the price-earnings ratio, earnings growth and other methods which are more intuitive. Moreover, the alteration of the profit and loss which was cause by the fair value measurement will not be eliminated by the market participants, they will base on unadjusted profits to access the value of the stocks. Meanwhile, we believe that the fair value reflects the price of the irrational market participants'mood; price will fluctuate frequently and deviate from the fundamental value of assets, and the deviation is a form by norm not by accident.In the end, we give some constructively suggestions from policy and dismiss bias against psychological.
Keywords/Search Tags:stock valuation, behavioral finance, fair value, profits, discounted cash flow
PDF Full Text Request
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