The Empirical Study Of The RMB Exchange Rate Pass-through Effcet Towards IMP Index Based On Industry Classification

With the continuous improvement of China's foreign trade dependence on external demand, the external demanding to become an important engine driving force towards economic growth. In 2007, the contribution rate of the trade surplus make towards GDP growth is 2.6%.as the world economic slowdown in 2008, the rate is decreased. This year, the international financial crisis has not improved in the short term, the sharp decline in external demand make the situation even worse .China's economic growth will undoubtedly be subject to a huge impact, it also shows that the Chinese economy's long-term growth can not rely on the growth of trade surplus, Based on above issues, we choose to use the autoregressive distributed lag model to study the exchange rate pass-through towards different industries, the results show that: the goods with low transmission rate subject to the traditional comparative advantage industries,the goods with high transmission rate subject to the traditional comparative advantage industries,the others subjects to energy industry. competitive advantage industry has a low transmission rate of the exchange rate thanks to its market share and pricing advantages, in this situation, the effect of the appreciation of the renminbi to achieve an international balance of payments is limited, we must change our country's export-oriented economic development model, the consume of our country is the key point to stimulate economic growth; while a smaller price elasticity of demand in China's energy industry, its exchange rate transmission elasticity coefficient is greater than 1, so the external shocks will have a greater impact on us. capital-intensive industries with high imports of goods transmission rate of the exchange rate, which is more affected by exchange rate fluctuations, the realization of China's rapid economic development must be accelerated investment in high-tech industries, at the same time encouraging innovation, which is an important engine of China's economic development; This paper also studied the current and long-time flexibility, the research has shown: the traditional comparative advantage industry's long-term and short-term flexibility of exchange rate involved in the same direction, and it's differences is small, the exchange rate has a small effect on import prices; the energy industry to pass the short-term and long-term elasticity of basically the same, are greater than 0; the exchange rate have an impact on import prices with a long time lag, the exchange rate pass-through effect in the current and long-term contrast . In general, the higher the technological content of products, the longer time lag.