Improved Grey Forecasting Model In Sinopec Oil And Gas Cost Forecast Application Research

Since Sinopec facing with the development of rising costs, benefit downside risks, we must improve oil and gas cost forecast level to insist on the development policies and objectives established. Because science hydrocarbon cost budget would increase cost by the management level, and achieve extensive management, decentralized operation to fine management, intensive management changes, will build vertically and horizontally to edge the whole total factor of the cost control of system, and improve the management level . This article will focus on the method of oil and gas cost forecast Sinopec launched research.Firstly, this article use different methods of Sinopec multi-angle oil and gas cost analysis and comparison, the composition of the oil and gas cost comb analysis structure and key projects, analyze the cost of oil and gas trends and existing problems. Then according to the characteristics of Sinopec adopt the most appropriate the grey system theory to oil and gas cost to carry on the forecast, and quoted particle swarm optimization algorithm was used to optimize the gray forecast method, and further improve the accuracy and reliability, formed a kind of the prediction accuracy is higher modified grey forecasting methods . After that , we use the subsequent example test to make a horizontal analysis. On the Basis of MATLAB language ,we established a kind of simple operation, display intuitive improved grey forecasting model can not only improve the accuracy of the prediction results and flexibility, and also improve the predicted range, finally to improved gray prediction research is prospected.