A Research On The Formation And Influence Factors Of A-share Market Cycle In China

The Formation of the stock market cycle has long been the concern of academics at home and abroad, especially complexity of the operating factors role, which has different conclusions in different years and different markets. The function of "barometer" and the characteristics of "policy market" make the study a strong theoretical and practical value, which study in stock market cycle and its impacting factors in China.Based on the background, this article first analyzes the theory of stock market cycle, especially on the Dow Theory and Wave Theory, and then points out corresponding compartmentalization of the A share market cycle in China made by the domestic scholars .Secondly, this article summarizes the impacting factors on the mature markets and emerging markets, founds that studies focused on factors of macroeconomic and monetary policy and the impact distinct in the market characteristics and the specific stage in development process. Based on the analysis of the characteristics and lack of domestic research, the article primary divides the market cycles of A-share stock market in China ,and further do the empirical analysis in the dimensions of macroeconomic develop and monetary policies ; other factors such as of the impact of unexpected events is also being analyzed. According to the outcome of empirical analysis, during the process from born to mature of the stock market in China, the influence of its perturbation is smaller while the impacts of macroeconomic develop and interest rate has an increasing trend. The impact of macroeconomic has undergone a significant role from the original to no effect, then back to significant causal role; the direct influence of monetary policy has undergone a significant role in the character of M0 to M1 which has the more effective transmission channels.Finally, this article summarizes combined effects of factors in different A share market cycle in development periods of China. After summarizing conclusions, promotes the suggestions in macroeconomic develop, monetary policy, temporary external shock, interent stock market and proposed further consideration of the problem and researching prospects.