An Empirical Study Of China's Monetary Policy And Stock Market Relation

The relation between monetary policy and capital market is one of the problems of the most forward position in the present monetary theoretical research. But influence the channel of the capital market and final conclusion without unity at present of economists of various countries of result to the monetary policy. And this question is essential to the conduction mechanism of the monetary policy, it not merely concerns whether to consider the stock market in conduction mechanism of monetary policy, concern monetary policy maker have ability intervene and how about interfere the stock market from. Fulfil the commitments to WTO progressively, the progress opening to the outside world of China will continue deepening, especially opening to the outside world of financial circles will be fully under way, how to maintain the stability of the financial system of our country, and how improve domestic financial system dispose monetary economic efficiency of resource, etc. theory of issue explain meaning whether domestic economic theory circle correlated with government with policy Focal point which the department pays close attention to. So, study the transmission effect of stock market of the monetary policy of our country; Study of our country monetary policy can have effect have important theory and realistic meaning to stock market fluctuations and corresponding tactics.This text main research of our country it is necessary for Central Bank to intervene stock market and monetary policy to stock market effective problem, study impact on real economy of irrigation ditch of a transmission regarded as the monetary policy on stock market, impact on stock market of the monetary policy change. In studying impact on real economy and foundation of impact on stock market of the monetary policy of stock market, obtain the present stage of our country status and function of stock market, put forward of our country Central Bank monetary policy to deal with stock tactics of market fluctuations the present stage, and has explained the reason from a lot of respects.The thesis is divided into three following parts the logic structure:The first Part analyze the relation between the monetary policy and stock market and impact on real economy of stock market theoretically. Mainly include: The stock market and real economy relation; The monetary policy acts on the general mechanism on the stock market; Monetary delivery volume and relation on the stock market; Relation between interest rate and stock market.The second Part Study the transmission effect of stock market of the monetary policy and effect of impact on stock market of monetary policy change from real example. Mainly include: Stock price and dynamic influence result to GDP and CPI of market value change of circulating; Monetary delivery volume (M0,M1 and M2 three levels) impact on stock market of change; Dynamic influence on the stock market of interest rate change of inter-banker lending and borrowing.The third Part study status as a transmission channel of monetary policy and function of stock market of our country and develop, the monetary policy of our country influenced the change of the result to the stock market, summarized our country's monetary policy and relation on the stock market finally, have put forward the monetary policy of our country and dealt with tactics and policy recommendations of the market fluctuations of stocks.This text adopts the theory and analyzes the method to combine with positive research under study for action, adopt the relevant new theories of econometrics and new method , for instance the vectorial autoregression model of the structure (SVAR), pulse respond the function, variance to decompose etc. and introduce to while studying. This text has drawn the following conclusion on the basis of the theory and positive research:1,It is influenced that the stock price of our country and change of the market value of circulating have certain front GDP, improve to some extent before this kind of influence changes burst during one burst of periods after changing, but fainter.2,Whether the change of the stock price of our country can be caused or reacted in the future CPI is the same as to the change, increase as compared to great intensity before burst of this kind of influence after changing changes burst. Circulate market value influence to CPI for faint defeat before burst is changed, produce loud straight influence relatively among bursts of period change.3,To stock price with circulate influence share of market value share improve a lot make a change, relatively make a change, change that currency supply with, and influencing the stock price with circulating, the intensity of the market value is basically identical. Relatively there are obvious changes before being changed in share after the burst of impact on stock market of change of the interest rate of inter-banker lending and borrowing is changed. Comparatively speaking, compared with money supply, the change of the interest rate can influence the stock market even more. 4,The stock market has already become an important channel which has conducted the monetary policy. Stock price and the connection with GDP of market value of circulating, as me The enlargement of country's stock market scale and improvement of efficiency are closer and closer. Meanwhile, of our country inflation of stock market predict function too in strengthen progressively. But because this kind conduct effect still comparatively faint, this determine Central Bank attitude toward stock market can only" pay close attention to the fact" and can be " kept a close watch on ".5,On the Central Bank intends to influence the stock market, it should be a policy tool of interest rate to be first-selected; The use for monetary quantity tool can only be that" considered " is used, and have very great uncertainty in producing the result that expect.