Research On Enterprise Credit Risk Evaluation Model

In modern economy, the credit relation, i.e. the relationship between creditor's rights and indebtedness, is the most prevalent economy relation, and current economy is actually a credit economy. Of all the credit forms, enterprise credit has become the key of credit economy, and correspondingly enterprise credit risk is the source of commercial bank credit risk. So reinforcing the management of enterprise credit risk is helpful to solve credit problems of Chinese commercial banks. Being the core of enterprise credit risk management, enterprise credit risk evaluation is now the most important topic in its research field. The main contents of this thesis are as follows.First, four elementary concepts relating enterprise credit risk evaluation, i.e., credit, credit risk, credit risk management and credit risk evaluation and relative theories are analyzed to clearly present the theoretical system of enterprise credit risk evaluation. Second, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique is employed to build the index system of enterprise credit risk evaluation, then each index in the system is thoroughly discussed and their weights are worked out and verified. Third, a model of enterprise credit risk evaluation is constructed with GA-PSO hybrid programming algorithm, and its performance is compared with that of multiple regression model and GP algorithm model, showing the model is better than the others in estimation accuracy. Finally, validity of the above-mentioned index system and GA-PSO model is verified by use of actual data of stock companies, which shows that the evaluation results of the companies are consistent with their actual risk information by and large.