Kunming Central Tax Revenue Predictive Model Discussion And Empirical Analysis

That economy determines tax and tax influences economy is the fundamental perspectives in Marxist political economy. With the gradually deepening in China's reform of economy system, the effect of tax as adjustment leverage of macro-economy running is becoming more and more important. Tax is not only the main fiscal revenue resources, but also the important tools in macro-adjustment, and further the effective means in realizing equity and efficiency. Since tax essentially determines its functions in fiscal revenue gathering and macro-adjustment, the levying rate and scale of tax, the prediction and planning of it are of great significance.A good tax planning must take consideration of the relationship between tax revenue and economy development. In order to overcome the drawbacks of baseline tax planning, we need study scientifically the relationship between tax and economy, especially the relationship between tax revenue and macro-economy. The scientifically predicting and planning as well as levying of tax are of main practical meanings both for the economy development and for the fulfillment of tax revenue.Based upon the relevant references at home and abroad, and the concrete situations of Kunming's economy, this paper used co-integration model, error correction model, causality analysis and recursive regression model to systematically analyze the relationship between central tax revenue and economy of Kunming from multi-level, constructed the central tax revenue model of Kunming city and made prediction of Kunming central tax revenue in 2005 and 2006 with prediction values of 160 and 190 billion yuans respectively.Through the empirical analysis to the relation between central tax revenue and macro-economy indices, we come to the following conclusions: (1) there was no long-term stable relation (i.e. co-integration) between central tax revenue and GDP in Kunming; (2) there was cointegration between the logarithm of central tax revenue and the logarithm of GDP in Kunming, the average tax revenue elasticity was 0.486271; (3) the macro-economy indices that influenced the central tax revenue mostly were GDP, import-export trade total, labor wages total respectively. Finally on the basis of the empirical analysis of this paper, some relevant policy suggestions of Kunming central tax revenue were made.