The Research On Policy Factors To Chinese Stock Price Fluctuations

Theoretically, stock price which is the same as the commodity price is determined by the relationship of supply and demand in the stock market. But in fact, many factors determine the fluctuations of stock price, which are involved not only in the macroeconomic factors such as economic cycles, interest rate, income level, price level, international payments, etc., but also in the microeconomic factors, for example, the level of product technology, management, performance in the listed company, industry, etc., in addition to some non-economic factors such as policy intervention factors, market technical factors, social and psychological factors and so on. Through the four mechanisms of exterior impact, internal occurrence, self-realization and inner transmitting, these factors have the important influence to the fluctuations of stock price.The price fluctuation in Chinese stock market, in addition to common characteristics in general stock market, manifests some unique irrational features: large price fluctuations, high vibration frequency, etc. Its important reason is explained by"policy-driven". In order to study the relation between policy and stock market, we divide the policy into two types of continuous and discontinuous (separated) policy and then do the econometric analyses. According to its result, we may know that there is the positive correlation between the stock price and the continuous policy, but the explanation degree is extremely low. The changes of stock price is easily influenced by the short-term policy event and the short-term separated policy plays a very important role for the fluctuations of stock price; From classified events to the influence of stock market: (1) The administrative Acts through the government's issuing policy cause the market response intensely and the policy affects are effectively, but our administrative Acts appears irrationality and the stock market has been disturbed; (2) The average income fluctuation rate and important event rate are all high, So we can see that our stock market has extremely the policy consciousness; (3) The introduction and implementation of laws have the smallest impact on the market, which reflects the stable and prudent legal system to a certain extent. In a word, state policies are so important that they lead to stock price fluctuating and largely control the trend of price afterward in Chinese stock market. Nevertheless, the effect of policy to stock market is weak as a whole.Based on the policy Factors to Chinese stock price fluctuations, the paper which...