Disposition Of Money Supply' Endogeny And Empirical Testing In Our Country

1996, the volume of China's currency supply ( M 2) became as our country intermediary target of monetary policy officially, which in fact implies the volume of money supply is exogenous assumptions premise. Whether money supply is endogenous or exogenous determines monetary policy intermediate target and the choice of monetary policy model, and will directly affect the role of monetary policy effects. My intermediate target of monetary policy at this stage is the total money supply, which means that the PBOC will adopt to control money supply aggregates to achieve macroeconomic regulation. However, if China's money supply volume exist significant endogeny, it will lead to the weakening of the effectiveness of China's monetary policy even failures. Therefore, the study of our current monetary supply problems can provide theoretical basis and practical significance for the adjustment of China's monetary policies in open economic conditions.The paper based on the model volume of the money supply =basis money×monetary multiplier, had each factor of the basis money and monetary multiplier in normative analysis and empirical testing, and considered various factors such as the speed of money circulation effect to money multiplier. Finally, quantitative analysis and causal test were made to the total of GDP and all kinds of the money.1. Systematic appraisal of the impact of China's monetary supply of natural disposition factors was from the two sides in the basis money and monetary multiplier. Analysis shows that the four modes which our country supply the basis money are shown strong endgenous, and can not completely control by the central bank. Perhaps the single operational tool is not able to reflect on the overall money supply endogey, but after different tools "hedging", the basic money supply is bound to show it; Monetary multiplier changes with cycle changes; It is prepared by the statutory rate, the excessing ready rates, currency rates, periodic joint decision with demand deposits ratio, which commercial-banks ready rate is the most important factor affecting monetary multiplier change. Except the statutory reserve rate decided by the central bank, other are decided by commercial banks, public enterprises and other economic entities, among which affect economic behavior is mainly economic environment and reform policies, the central bank can not directly control. Statutory reserve rate changes on the economy with its devastating impact, the central bank can not be used as a tool of monetary policy, so monetary multiplier is endogenous variable.2. Although the basis money and monetary multiplier both are endgeous and so...