Empirical Studies Of The Relationship Between The Money Supply And Asset Prices Under The Background Of Shadow Banking In China

Since the21st century with the rapid development of our national economy, China has maintained relatively fast growth of the money supply,M0、M1、M2grow quickly basically at a speed of more than10%.In late February,2013.The balance of the money supply in China reached99.86trillion Yuan, closing to100trillion Yuan, it has been first in the world, since2002the money supply has increased by five times. A country’s new money supply generally flows to commodity market, capital market and goes abroad through the channel such as capital projects. In recent years our country’s price level rises constantly and slowly, Stock market and real estate industry has also seen a serious asset price bubbles. But commodity market price level rises slowly relative to the speed of asset prices in recent years and has been only in a double-digit percentage, it shows an annual increase of money supply don’t flow into the commodity market in a large number. Although our country reform financial system and open capital account gradually in recent years, but Yuan going abroad did not form a larger scale through capital project every year, so in our country the money supply is closely related to asset prices from the preliminary judgment.After the subprime crisis in the United States in2008, scholars at home and abroad begin to study of the causes of the crisis, some scholars attribute the crisis to the rapid development of the shadow banking system, financial products, trust products, sunshine private equity funds and brokerage collection of financial management got a rapid development. With the rapid development of financial innovation in recent years, as unregulated new financing intermediary body, shadow banking got a rapid expansion; the traditional currency division level in the past can’t reflect the needs of the new study. China Started to publish total social financing in2011,relative to money supply M2level, the increase part of the total social financing mainly is the untraditional credit supply, it mainly includes the trust loans, bonds, notes and so on, they has the same properties with shadow Banks, they both emerge and develop from financial innovation. Due to the availability of social financing volume data(China began to statistic total social financing data from2011),so we choose the shadow banking data to modify the traditional M2total amount and get fixed money supply M under the background of financial innovation, so the money supply in this article researched are MO,M1,M2,M, so as to truly embody social money supply level. Because this article selects the data of shadow banking products which is available, then add up for total data.It has large gap with the amount of shadow banking data in the true sense, but this article carries on the most conservative research to take advantage of amount of shadow banking data available.