Study On The Optimal Scale Of Industrial Clusters Basing On Cellular Automata Model

Industrial clusters have obviouse effect of economic scale. Generally speaking, if the agglomerate degree of economic elements in the cluster regions is higher, the scale will be large, and it'll make more benefits. However, its scale can't be extremely large, because larger scale will go with the stronger negative impactions. So that, one consideration on the optimal scales of industrial clusters comes out, that is, is there a best scale in which the total benefits, input-output ratio,is maximum or not?In the thesis, I choose the horizontal and symbiotic industrial cluster basing on the natural resources as the objects to study, and make full use of knowledges from many subjects,including: economy,management,complex science,math,computing simulation,etc. Through the idea of 'down to up', I make every individuality (company) inside the industrial clusters as a cell; and choose techological support,labor supply, natural resourses reserve,maket overlay,intermediary service,public foundation, govenment policies as the outside influencing features; and choose total assets,total production value, output ratio of capital as the indexes of system characters. Then, I establish a computing simulation model on the optimal scale of industrial clusters basing on Cellular Automata model by Matlab software, and simulate the shifts of characters of sigle cell according to the changing environments. So that, the existence of optimal scales can be studied by simulation experiments on computer.At last, kinds of shifts of the evoluting characters and optimal scales are discussed.After comparing the results of 10 simulation experiments,I make the conclusions:(1) In the evolutions of the horizontal and symbiotic industrial cluster basing on the natural resources, if the resources are limited,optimal scales will exist,but cannot last for long,for there is no reliver;if not,it seems that the existence of optimal scales may not be pointed out.(2) The maximum of input-output ratio is strikingly promoted by the level of technical developing and unrestraint of resourses. And at the same time, it's positively and distinctly influenced by the factors of natural resourses amount, techological support, govenment policies, labor supply, public foundation,intermediary service, maket overlay(from high influence to low).