The Research On Large Consumer's Direct Buying Based On Evolutionary Game Theory

The evolutionary game theory is the theory which unifies the game theory analysis and the dynamic evolution process. The Evolutionary stable strategy (ESS) and the evolved stability analysis, important parts of the evolutionary game theory, are valuable tools used by economists to analyze and research economic problems. With the stepwise development and improvement of China electric power market, it will be inevitable trends which large electric power consumers will buy electric power directly from the generators in the future. Useing the evolutionary game theory to study on the problem of large consumers direct buying has an important play on development and improvement of China electric power market.The paper uses the evolutionary game theory to study the issue of buying the electricity directly of the large electric power consumer, and the paper uses the parameters ofη and θ to mark potential capacity of the large electric power consumers and thegenerator, and the paper differently respectively divides them into two kinds according to the ability, and the paper establishes the profit model of the large consumer and generators to choose mutually for directly buying the electricity transaction and analyzes each kind of balanced characteristic. The paper also uses the parameters of a and b to separately express social system adaptation costs of the individual to become the innovation type of the large electric power consumers and the big electric generation business, discovers the qualification of the equilibrium of the parameters of a and b , and the paper shows by computation that the parameter will be broken when the parameters break through the boundary, but finally it will be able to evolve new equilibrium.The paper studies the profit of the game of the three kinds of buying the electricity directly of one large electric power consumer and one generator, many large electric power consumers and many generators, and time-of-use. The correct forecast of bid price tendcey is primary factor which makes a profit.The paper gives the very good reference for buying the electricity directly of the big user.