Modeling And Demonstration Study Of Transportation Energy Demand In China

Transportation department is one of the basic industries in national economy, and it is the bond of logistics and crowd in the economic activities. Since the beginning of reform and opening up, transportation volume of fare and freight by various means of transportation has grown rapidly. With constant expanding of economic scale in China, it's getting more and more concern whether the future energy industry can support the speeding economy development. Integrated into the international energy geopolitical structure and the significant changes in world oil market and the actual situation of oil resources, competitive pressure on oil resource will greatly increase, analysis and research on the transportation energy demand have some relevance with the harmonious development of the Transportation and the healthy operation of the national economy. So, this paper takes "modeling of transportation energy demand" as the main study content.At present, methods applied in analysis of transportation energy are based on traditional modeling techniques, while techniques evaded nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of time-series data. From the aspect of non-steady and nonlinear of the time-series data perspective, the paper applies error correction model and support vector machine in the modeling separately, and got two model, on the basis of the model analyzed factors of transportation energy demand, draw some conclusions as follows: 1) transportation energy demand will grow steadily; 2)There is long-term equilibrium relationship between transportation energy demand and its impact factor, long-term income flexibility and passenger flexibility and cargo flexibility and vehicle flexibility of demand for transport energy are respectively 0.983, -0.564, 0.482, 1.102; 3) Comparative analysis of the two models, we can found linear model with distinct economic significant, but low forecast accuracy; nonlinear models has higher precision, the economic significance is not clear. So the two models can be complementally in the practical application. Finally some development recommendations of transportation energy are proposed.