The Analysis Of The Relationship Between Energy Supply And Demand In Hunan Province And Empirical Study On Influencing Factors Of The Energy Consumption

Energy is the most basic material foundation and the power source of the material for economic and social development .With the rapid economic development, energy demand in Hunan Province is also growing,and the contradiction between energy supply and demand also have become increasingly prominent. In recent years, rapid economic development in Hunan Province, but the energy consumption is far higher than the national average.It related to that if the economy could have a healthy[0], stable and sustainable development, whether[0] Hunan can formulate a rational energy development strategy or not.At present, domestic and foreign scholars who engaged in the research of the energy problems are mainly to analyze the long-term relationship between energy consumption and the actual GDP, and many other factors which have a great impact of the energy consumption are not taken into account. Moreover, the research of scholars is mostly based on the time series, very few scholars have conducted cross-section data analysis and Spatial Econometric analysis, and the studies that use prefecture-level panel data to conduct spatial analysis is more rare, this paper has made a comprehensive investigation to Hunan's energy consumption from two dimensions: long vertical and space horizontal. First of all,this paper introduce the background and significance of topics and a summary of relevant research on home and abroad.And then this paper have an overall summary of the situation from the demand and supply, the conclusions confirm that the consumption of energy in industry is enormous,and the energy supply in Hunan province can not meet demand. The third chapter selects three representative ones from a number of factors which have influence on energy consumption: actual GDP, population growth and industrialization, and then establishes a co-integration model of the energy demand so as to analysis the long-term relationship between the three factors with energy consumption, the results show that the three factors has a long-term cointegration relationship with the energy consumption, and in the long term, the population is the most important factor.Then constructed a error correction model of Hunan Province to reflect the influence which the factors have on energy consumption in the short-term. The fourth chapter built a spatial error model and a spatial lag model to analyze the spatial effects of energy consumption between each city of Hunan Province using the panel data of energy consumption and its influencing factors about prefectures and cities in Hunan Province. The results show that the Moran's I index which has been calculated indicates that the inter-city energy consumption exist a positive correlation in spatial and the SEM model reflects the energy consumption situation pretty well.The last chaper, in accordance with the conclusions of the model, the energy strategy of Hunan province made a number of recommendations.