| The history of the real estate industry in China has lasted 20 years from the 1980s. During this period, the real estate industry has experienced a process of recovery, development, expansion and recession. Through observing such phenomena, we may bring forward some question: Does there exist a development law of real estate in China? Does the real estate fluctuate haphazardly or inevitably? What is the intrinsic mechanism of fluctuation?What affecting factors are and how they affect?How to prevent the violent fluctuation? Due to lack of practice, short of systematic cognition and lag of responding theory, such problems mentioned above have not been thoroughly resolved, especially in mainland China. In this study, we present responding suggestion to the fluctuation of real estate after analyzing the inner mechanism and law of fluctuation on real estate, which has significance both in theory and practice.This study on the cycle of real estate industry in China consists of five parts as follows:In Chapter 1, this essay introduce the background, the significance in theory & practice, literature review , the structure arrangement and methodology , innovation and shortage of this study.In Chapter 2, we construct a basic analytical structure for the theory of real estate based on related theory and methodology of classical fluctuation theory. Through referring related literatures, we firstly make a conclusion of fluctuation theory and define a concept of real estate fluctuation, and then analyze the internal mechanism of real estate fluctuation based on the theory of"shock and conduction". Furthermore, we discuss the interactions between real estate fluctuation and macro-economy by the means of modern econometrics, such as Granger-Causality Test, Co-integration Test and Error Correction Model, Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition.In Chapter 3, this essay chooses the basic method and Spectral analysis to analyze the data of 1987-2004 quantitatively. The results indicate that, there exists a cycle in real estate fluctuation of China, which is a period of 4-6 years and 5 years average.In Chapter 4, combining above theory, we study the characters of the cycle inChinese real estate industry and open out the cause of formation: the alteration of policy, the change of land policies, the fluctuation of investment and the inharmony between the development of the estate industry and the macro-economy. In the final part, based on above analysis, this essay proposes the policy recommendations to prevent our country real estate cycle from violent fluctuating, to guarantee the persistent and stable development of real estate in China. Overall train of thought to set about from two respects, on one hand lie in reducing systematic outside impact, on the other hand lie in strengthening the system steadily. Compared to other analogue study in the cycle fluctuation of real estate, this study holds some innovations. Firstly, this study analyzes the cycle and fluctuation of real estate in China both in theory and practice, and analyzes the cause and presents some responding suggestions based on the results; Secondly, this study quantitatively analyzes the law of real estate fluctuation by some modern empirical means, such as direct measure, residual measure and Spectral Analysis, etc.; Thirdly, this study discusses the interactions between real estate fluctuation and macro-economy by innovative use of Granger-Causality Test, Co-integration Test and Error Correction Model, Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition; Finally, this study presents responding suggestions aiming at reducing external shock and strengthening internal stability both in quantity and quality for the real estate in China. Because of the complexity of real estate fluctuation and the limit of time and information available to refer, there still exist some shortages in this study. First of all, the data discussed in empirical study just covers from 1987 to 2004 in China, while we just do a qualitative study on the real estate fluctuation before 1987; Furthermore, to keep a consistence in text, this study selects the sales space of commodity house as indicator to reflect the real estate to empirically analyze, while there may exist a bias between them. Such problems require to be improved in the further study. |
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