The Practical Research Of Chinese Real Estate Cycle

This article focuses on the topics of cycle of real estate industry. To analyze the topic, we can not only testify the existence of real estate cycle, analyze its mechanism, but also study the main endogenous and exogenous factors that influence the cycle of real estate fluctuation and depict the characteristic of the cycle correctly.The study based on objective existence of real estate cycle fluctuation. Run test provide a method to justify whether a set of time series data is cyclical or not. By means of Waldwblfowitz run test, the existence of real estate cycle was confirmed.It is important for this thesis to study the mechanism of real estate cycle. The shock-transfer structure gives the right explanation on endogenous and exogenous mechanism. The paper introduced the shock-transfer structure to analyze the real estate cycle fluctuation. On the basis of it, a mathematical model was set up.The factors that influence real estate cycle fluctuation can be divided into endogenous and exogenous factors. Each of factors provided the influence by its mechanism. The central idea behind of the part is to find out the remarkable factors that influence the cycle fluctuation. By means of Granger causality test , we drew the conclusion as following: GDP is the unilateralism causality of granger to real estate cycle. Citified rate is the unilateralism causality of granger to real estate cycle. Investment is the mutual causality of ganger to real estate cycle. And on the basis of it, the paper also set up the error correct model between the investment and cycle of real estate.Asymmetry is an important characteristic of real estate cycle. It covers two styles: deep style and steep style. The deep style reflects the relation between the expansion and the contraction of...